24 February

Novel Coronavirus nCOV/2019-nCoV/NCP/COVID19: Forecasts, Statistics, Protection, News,[4th reprint, 06.03|

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Translation
Original author: Loband(Translation of own publication)

Translated by authorNovel Coronavirus nCOV/2019-nCoV/NCP/COVID19: Forecasts, Statistics, Protection, News, World: ~2500 [4th reprint, 28.02]



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In Chinese
https://hmp.me/cxq9


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Incomplete data from December 31 to February 19

imageIncomplete data for the entire period


New news
Updated Charts for 2019-nCov

I started creating my own site, everything new will be on it.


Abstract

As a result, I managed to indicate in a popular form almost all the features of the coronavirus, talk about the features of protection, predict the probabilities, and indicate the factors influencing the statistics.
I managed to update the information every day for a month. I managed to write about almost everything related to coronavirus.


The publication is too big. 300000 symbols: 13000 (news) + 170,000 (publication). I will not be able to briefly talk about the content.
Follow the links to the topic you need. Do not be afraid about the large article size and complexity. I made the article as clear as possible.


The situation was in an unstable phase and everything could end. But the virus has found new “broad ways” to spread.
Therefore, country information is now important. In the worst case scenario, South Korea will repeat the fate of China.


Russian version
Unfortunately, the quality of the translation may not be ideal. Please indicate errors(Ctrl+Enter).
This is the fourth version of the publication: 200,000 letters + 15,000 news.22.01. You can follow the links where necessary.
The third version(Ru)02/04/100000 letters.
The second version(Ru)28.01.70000 letters.
The first version(Ru)26.01.50000 letters.

Repaired anchors. Links are now clickable:
I fixed the anchors a second time. Now everything is working for sure.


New news
New news:(Changed)
Updated Charts for 2019-nCov

  1. Extended Facts: Family
  2. Extended Facts: Typology
  3. Extended Facts: Size
  4. Extended Facts: Other
  5. Extended facts: Structure
  6. Symptom Data: Invasion
  7. Symptom Data: Main Symptoms
  8. Similar signs of three coronaviruses
  9. Gaps in understanding coronavirus source
  10. Gaps in understanding:One case from the past ,1
  11. Gaps in understanding:One case from the past ,2
  12. Understanding Gaps: Probably Wrong Hypotheses
  13. Understanding Gaps: A Possible Carrier, Research
  14. Understanding Gaps: A Probable Virus Carrier, Research,1
  15. Understanding Gaps: A Probable Virus Carrier, Research,2
  16. Understanding Gaps: A Probable Virus Carrier, Research,3
  17. Gaps in understanding the coronavirus Source: A study that was conducted hCoV-EMC
  18. Gaps in understanding:Summary
  19. Features of coronavirus, including especially important.
  20. Features of coronavirus: Incubation period
  21. Possible origin: Virus transmission methods: Contagiousness (Copy)
  22. Possible origin: Summary: Action required
  23. Possible origin:Summary: Suspicion
  24. Possible origin: Methods of spreading the virus
  25. Possible origin: Virus transmission methods: Contagiousness (Copy)
  26. Section 2: A Brief History of Medical Remedies
  27. Section 2: Features of protection against the virus: Treatment and prevention
  28. Protection Features: Treatment
  29. Protection features: Treatment methods. Question from the reader: Effect of ACE2 blockers
  30. Protection Features: Treatment Methods (Copy)
  31. Protection Features: Vaccines (Copy)
  32. Section 2: Features of the virus protection: masks: Pros and Cons
  33. Why WHO, other doctors do not recommend the use of masks. Why you can still use them
  34. Cons of PPE
  35. Pros of PPE
  36. РSection 2: Features of the virus protection: masks: Features
  37. Protection Features: Masks: If
  38. Protection Features: Masks: Disadvantages
  39. Summary: Respirators can be used.
  40. Protection Features: Masks: Best Option
  41. Section 2: Features of virus protection: conventional mask: Research
  42. Virus survival: The effect of water is mostly positive for the virus. (Copy)
  43. Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy)
  44. Section 2: Host Coronavirus Adaptability
  45. Virus Survival: Adaptability of the Virus.
  46. Virus survival: Interspecific transition.
  47. Section 2: Introductory information on the survivability of viruses.
  48. Virus survival: Effect of temperature, a key factor.
  49. Virus survival: Question from the reader.
  50. Virus survival: Humidity, an additional factor.
  51. Virus Survival: Effect of Temperature, Key Factor. (Copy)
  52. Symptom Data: Invasion
  53. Symptom Data: Main Symptoms
  54. Similar signs of three coronaviruses
  55. Gaps in understanding coronavirus source
  56. Gaps in understanding:One case from the past ,1
  57. Gaps in understanding:One case from the past ,2
  58. Understanding Gaps: Probably Wrong Hypotheses
  59. Understanding Gaps: A Possible Carrier, Research
  60. Understanding Gaps: A Probable Virus Carrier, Research,1
  61. Understanding Gaps: A Probable Virus Carrier, Research,2
  62. Understanding Gaps: A Probable Virus Carrier, Research,3
  63. Gaps in understanding the coronavirus Source: A study that was conducted hCoV-EMC
  64. Gaps in understanding:Summary
  65. Features of coronavirus, including especially important.
  66. Features of coronavirus: Incubation period
  67. Possible origin: Virus transmission methods: Contagiousness (Copy)
  68. Section 2: A Brief History of Medical Remedies
  69. Section 2: Features of protection against the virus: Treatment and prevention
  70. Protection Features: Treatment
  71. Protection features: Treatment methods. Question from the reader: Effect of ACE2 blockers
  72. Protection Features: Treatment Methods (Copy)
  73. Protection Features: Vaccines (Copy)
  74. Section 2: Features of the virus protection: masks: Pros and Cons
  75. Why WHO, other doctors do not recommend the use of masks. Why you can still use them
  76. Cons of PPE
  77. Pros of PPE
  78. РSection 2: Features of the virus protection: masks: Features
  79. Protection Features: Masks: If
  80. Protection Features: Masks: Disadvantages
  81. Summary: Respirators can be used.
  82. Protection Features: Masks: Best Option
  83. Section 2: Features of virus protection: conventional mask: Research
  84. Virus survival: The effect of water is mostly positive for the virus. (Copy)
  85. Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy)
  86. Section 2: Host Coronavirus Adaptability
  87. Virus Survival: Adaptability of the Virus.
  88. Virus survival: Interspecific transition.
  89. Section 2: Introductory information on the survivability of viruses.
  90. Virus Survival: Effect of Temperature, Key Factor. (Copy)
  91. Distribution Impact: Summary
  92. Virus survival: Effect of sunlight activity.
  93. Virus survival: The effect of water is mainly positive for the virus.
  94. Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy)
  95. Summary: Why you need to change the mask. (Copy)
  96. The impact of other measures on the situation
  97. The impact of other measures on the situation, nose washing, answer to the reader’s question
  98. Section 2: Factor of virus size, survival and transmission versus all methods
  99. The effect of other measures on inactivation
  100. The effect of treatment on inactivation
  101. The effect of ultraviolet radiation on inactivation, an answer to a reader’s question
  102. The effect of ozone on inactivation, an answer to a reader’s question
  103. Section2: Summary: Information about the survivability of the coronavirus on surfaces.
  104. Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces: Summary
  105. Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces: Summary,2
  106. Statistics: Learning problems (copy):
  107. Probabilities of keeping the virus on surfaces without inactivation
  108. Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces without inactivation: influence of the main factor
  109. Section 2: Summary: Virus Potential Viability
  110. Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces without inactivation: Summary.
  111. Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy)
  112. Summary: Why you need to change the mask. (Copy)
  113. Section 3: Sars Incidence Data (For Comparison)
  114. SARS Statistics: Cases
  115. SARS Statistics: Mortality
  116. SARS Statistics: Mortality by Age
  117. Section 3: 2019-nCoV incidence data
  118. Statistics: mortality probability: by age
  119. Statistics: probability of infection: by age
  120. Probability statistics for other groups
  121. Statistics: Cure Probability
  122. Statistics: death toll (More data in the chart table. From 11.02)
  123. Statistics: the number of issued
  124. Statistics: Number of suspicions
  125. Statistics: number of common cases
  126. Statistics: number of severe cases
  127. Statistics: Cumulative cases (More data in the chart table. From 11.02)
  128. Section 3: Statistics: Country Data
  129. Section 3: Statistics: Notes and Summary
  130. Statistics: Results:
  131. Section 3: Approximate Simple Assessment Scheme
  132. Statistics: Forecast: Assumptions:
  133. The characteristics of the coronavirus, including hc, are especially important: Distribution without symptoms (copy)
  134. The characteristics of the coronavirus, including hc, are especially important: Distribution without symptoms (copy)
  135. The characteristics of the coronavirus, including hc, are especially important: Distribution without symptoms: Opinion (Copy)
  136. Summary: Assessment Models for Other Professionals
  137. Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 1
  138. Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 2
  139. Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model,
  140. Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 4
  141. Statistics: Forecast: My model
  142. Statistics: Problems with the study:
  143. Statistics: Forecasting Controversy
  144. Summary: State Response Stages and Forecasts
  145. Protection Features: Treatment Methods (Copy)
  146. Protection Features: Vaccines (Copy)
  147. Summary: Hazard Assessment
  148. Summary: Possible origin: Virus transmission routes: (Copy)
  149. Summary: Possible origin: Interspecific distribution
  150. Summary: Hazard assessment: Interspecific distribution
  151. Summary: Hazard Assessment: Health System Limits
  152. Summary:Risk assessment: The duration and the «tails»
  153. Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor
  154. Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 2 (Copy)
  155. Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 3 (Copy)
  156. Summary: Predictive Models
  157. Summary: Vaccine Development Probability
  158. Summary: Vaccine Development Probability
  159. Summary:Hazard assessment: The impact of the lag on statistics. Effect of incubation period:
  160. Summary: The effect of the incubation period
  161. Outcomes: Impact of the incubation period: Assumption of going beyond the SARS level
  162. Summary: The effect of the window until the authorities react
  163. Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 2 (Copy)
  164. Typical misconceptions regarding the virus:
  165. Summary: Consequences
  166. Summary: Forecasts and Reality
  167. Analysis of Probable Influences: The Beginning
  168. Initial phase: Response: Medics reaction
  169. Analysis of Probable Influencing Factors: Initial Phase
  170. Initial phase: Response: Medics reaction, 2
  171. Initial phase: Response: Reaction of authorities and organizations
  172. Initial phase: Response: Media response
  173. Analysis of Probable Influencing Factors: Initial Phase: Assumptions
  174. Initial phase: Probability: Assumption: The probability of an outbreak starting earlier
  175. Initial phase: Probability: Proposition No. 1: Total:
  176. Initial phase: Probability: Proposition No. 1: The main factors influencing statistics
  177. Internal Factors: Reaction Probability Factors
  178. Internal Factors: Symptoms
  179. Internal factors of the statistical system
  180. Internal factors associated with common indicators
  181. External factors associated with common indicators
  182. Internal factors associated with the virus disseminators
  183. External factors associated with the virus disseminators
  184. Internal factors associated with the control system
  185. Summary: Statistics Issues
  186. Distribution Impact: Summary
  187. Virus survival: Effect of sunlight activity.
  188. Virus survival: The effect of water is mainly positive for the virus.
  189. Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy)
  190. Summary: Why you need to change the mask. (Copy)
  191. The impact of other measures on the situation
  192. The impact of other measures on the situation, nose washing, answer to the reader’s question
  193. Section 2: Factor of virus size, survival and transmission versus all methods
  194. The effect of other measures on inactivation
  195. The effect of treatment on inactivation
  196. The effect of ultraviolet radiation on inactivation, an answer to a reader’s question
  197. The effect of ozone on inactivation, an answer to a reader’s question
  198. Section2: Summary: Information about the survivability of the coronavirus on surfaces.
  199. Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces: Summary
  200. Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces: Summary,2
  201. Statistics: Learning problems (copy):
  202. Probabilities of keeping the virus on surfaces without inactivation
  203. Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces without inactivation: influence of the main factor
  204. Section 2: Summary: Virus Potential Viability
  205. Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces without inactivation: Summary.
  206. Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy)
  207. Summary: Why you need to change the mask. (Copy)
  208. Section 3: Sars Incidence Data (For Comparison)
  209. SARS Statistics: Cases
  210. SARS Statistics: Mortality
  211. SARS Statistics: Mortality by Age
  212. Section 3: 2019-nCoV incidence data
  213. Statistics: mortality probability: by age
  214. Statistics: probability of infection: by age
  215. Probability statistics for other groups
  216. Statistics: Cure Probability
  217. Statistics: death toll (More data in the chart table. From 11.02)
  218. Statistics: the number of issued
  219. Statistics: Number of suspicions
  220. Statistics: number of common cases
  221. Statistics: number of severe cases
  222. Statistics: Cumulative cases (More data in the chart table. From 11.02)
  223. Section 3: Statistics: Country Data
  224. Section 3: Statistics: Notes and Summary
  225. Statistics: Results:
  226. Section 3: Approximate Simple Assessment Scheme
  227. Statistics: Forecast: Assumptions:
  228. The characteristics of the coronavirus, including hc, are especially important: Distribution without symptoms (copy)
  229. The characteristics of the coronavirus, including hc, are especially important: Distribution without symptoms (copy)
  230. The characteristics of the coronavirus, including hc, are especially important: Distribution without symptoms: Opinion (Copy)
  231. Summary: Assessment Models for Other Professionals
  232. Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 1
  233. Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 2
  234. Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model,
  235. Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 4
  236. Statistics: Forecast: My model
  237. Statistics: Problems with the study:
  238. Statistics: Forecasting Controversy
  239. Summary: State Response Stages and Forecasts
  240. Protection Features: Treatment Methods (Copy)
  241. Protection Features: Vaccines (Copy)
  242. Summary: Hazard Assessment
  243. Summary: Possible origin: Virus transmission routes: (Copy)
  244. Summary: Possible origin: Interspecific distribution
  245. Summary: Hazard assessment: Interspecific distribution
  246. Summary: Hazard Assessment: Health System Limits
  247. Summary:Risk assessment: The duration and the «tails»
  248. Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor
  249. Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 2 (Copy)
  250. Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 3 (Copy)
  251. Summary: Predictive Models
  252. Summary: Vaccine Development Probability
  253. Summary: Vaccine Development Probability
  254. Summary:Hazard assessment: The impact of the lag on statistics. Effect of incubation period:
  255. Summary: The effect of the incubation period
  256. Outcomes: Impact of the incubation period: Assumption of going beyond the SARS level
  257. Summary: The effect of the window until the authorities react
  258. Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 2 (Copy)
  259. Typical misconceptions regarding the virus:
  260. Summary: Consequences
  261. Summary: Forecasts and Reality
  262. Analysis of Probable Influences: The Beginning
  263. Initial phase: Response: Medics reaction
  264. Analysis of Probable Influencing Factors: Initial Phase
  265. Initial phase: Response: Medics reaction, 2
  266. Initial phase: Response: Reaction of authorities and organizations
  267. Initial phase: Response: Media response
  268. Analysis of Probable Influencing Factors: Initial Phase: Assumptions
  269. Initial phase: Probability: Assumption: The probability of an outbreak starting earlier
  270. Initial phase: Probability: Proposition No. 1: Total:
  271. Initial phase: Probability: Proposition No. 1: The main factors influencing statistics
  272. Internal Factors: Reaction Probability Factors
  273. Internal Factors: Symptoms
  274. Internal factors of the statistical system
  275. Internal factors associated with common indicators
  276. External factors associated with common indicators
  277. Internal factors associated with the virus disseminators
  278. External factors associated with the virus disseminators
  279. Internal factors associated with the control system
  280. Summary: Statistics Issues
  281. Some links
  282. Updated Charts for 2019-nCov
  283. News: (Changed)

WHO scientific articles:
1
The full 2019-nCoV genome is now stored online atGenBank: MN908947.3.
My timeline


Extended Facts: Family


02.02

Coronaviruses are a family of RNA viruses that includes 40 types of viruses in 2 subfamilies as of January 2020. They were named because of the structure of their envelope in the form of a corona.
Coronavirus was first isolated in 1965 in a patient with acute rhinitis. In 2002-2003, the SARS-CoV virus appeared in China. (8000 sick, 800 dead).
In 2012, MERS-CoV. At the end of 2019-beginning of 2020 2019-nCoV. In addition to zoonotic (approx. Causative agents parasitize in the body which is a natural reservoir for them) SARS- and MERS-CoV,
There are four «established» human coronaviruses (HCoV).

Extended Facts: Typology


02.02

2019-nCoV: Kingdom: Riboviria, Type: Incertae Sedis, Order: Nidovirales, Family: Coronaviridae, Genus: etacoronavirus, Subgenus: Sarbecovirus
They are divided into 4 genera, which are called alpha coronavirus, beta coronavirus, gamma coronavirus and deltacoronavirus 1.

HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E are alpha-coronaviruses (120-160 nanometers), while HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, 2019-nCoV are beta-coronaviruses,1 and 2

Extended Facts: Size


02.02

Viral particles (approx. Virions) are spherical in shape, with some changes in the internal structure (approx. Signs of polymorphism) with a diameter of 75-160 nm (size 2019-nCoV from 60 to 140 / ~ 120 nanometers in diameter).
The height of the protrusions of different coronaviruses is on average 12-24 nm (2019-nCoV 9-12).

Extended Facts: Other


26.01

Different types of coronaviruses infect humans, cats, birds, dogs, cattle, pigs and hares, bats, camels and other animals.

Extended facts: Structure


02.02


Coronaviruses — viruses with a positive RNA chain (+ RNA) in comparison with other RNA viruses have an exceptionally large genome (from thousands of base pairs) and use a complex process strategy (approx. Expression of the genome.),
where hereditary information (DNA nucleotide sequences) is converted to RNA or protein.

They have a polycistronic (approx. Number of sides) genome organization and use a unique transcription mechanism to generate a nested set of subgenomic (sg) mRNAs.

Coronaviruses have a single-stranded RNA genome that encodes 4–5 structural proteins, including the outer membrane protein (N), matrix protein (M), small membrane protein (E), spike (S) glycoprotein (protein), which ensures cell binding and penetration.
Some beta-coronaviruses have a protein (glycoprotein) (HE) that some enveloped viruses use as an invasion mechanism. HE helps in the attachment and destruction of certain sialic acid receptors.
that are on the surface of the host cell… 0.

Symptom Data: Invasion<


02.02

SARS-CoV and the similar 2019-nCoV begins its life cycle by binding its viral particle through a two-component protein (glycoprotein),
which is encoded by the S-segment of the virus genome with the ACE2 receptor on the target cell, and the virus particle is captured by the process of capture of external material by the cell.

Its protein S changes position to facilitate fusion of the endosomal membrane and the release of the RNA genome into the target cell.
After transcription and translation, the viral structural and non-structural proteins and genomic RNA are then assembled into viral particles (approx. The virus is assembled from the components),
Then they are transported through intracellular organelles and released from the target cell.

Symptom Data: Main Symptoms


26.01

Symptoms are generally similar to similar coronaviruses: cough, fever, shortness of breath, chest pain…
The virus is difficult to distinguish from ordinary diseases and it is not always possible to determine the disease with a thermal imager.

02.02?

Irregular cases of signs different from other coronaviruses were recorded at the Wuhan People’s Hospital: Some patients had a poor appetite in the first stages, fatigue, mental problems, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, headache. Only after a while did pulmonary pneumonia symptoms begin to be observed.
There is definitely nothing good about the variable characteristics; this may be, in part, a sign of mutability and significant differences in viral samples (polymorphism) or even virus instability.

02.02?

Recently, in the medical journal Lancet, information appeared about the disease of an entire family, including a child.
This is the first such case. Scientists have found very high infectiousness of the virus, the chance of infection with the proximity of the diseased is high.

Similar signs of three coronaviruses


28.01?

Scientists have confirmed that coronavirus belongs to the same group of viruses as the causative agent of SARS-CoV SARS, as well as the strain of Middle East respiratory syndrome MERS-CoV. Hundreds of people died from diseases caused by these viruses.

The 2019-nCoV genome is very similar to the already known coronaviruses. It's RNA most (96.2% nucleotide coincidence) was similar to the RNA of a virus similar to the SARS virus found a couple of years ago in bats Rhinolophus affinis in Yunan Province.

According to other studies, the 2019-nCoV gene is 79.5% identical to SARS-CoV SARS RNA. It retained one of its five sites.
He also has the same receptor (ACE2).

However, there is a high probability that the new virus differs from SARS and from the bat virus, including mortality (-) and transmission rate (+), more about this below.

Gaps in understanding coronavirus source


26.01

There is a significant chance that scientists do not yet fully understand the nature of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus, or even make mistakes again, as was the case with the hCoV-EMC virus detected in 2012.

One case from the past ,1


At that time, it was also suggested that hCoV-EMC and SARS had the same infection pathway, but this was not confirmed after studies.
In 2012, as a result of studies at the University of Bonn Medical Center at modifying hamster kidney cells, scientists forced them to produce ACE2 human receptors.

SARS-coronavirus was able to enter these cells, but hCoV-EMC did not succeed — this proves that the hCoV-EMC virus does not need ACE2 receptors to enter the cell.
What is most interesting, then it was not possible to establish which receptors are needed by hCoV-EMC.

One case from the past ,2


26.01

Also, a signal that scientists still do not fully understand the origin of the virus can be a recent statement that the current virus was transmitted from snakes, which many scientists consider unlikely.

Nature magazine published commentaries by leading virologists from around the world stating that snakes could hardly have been the source of a new coronavirus.
Establish which receptors are needed by hCoV-EMC.

Understanding Gaps: Probably Wrong Hypotheses


28.01

There is a hypothesis that the 2019-nCoV virus was obtained in the laboratory from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. (approx. Then there were scientific articles hinting at this; see paragraphs Understanding spaces: Probable medium, studies, 2 and 3)
However, I believe such hypotheses are not yet sufficiently substantiated.

Understanding Gaps: A Possible Carrier, Research


28.01

Another group of researchers at the Wuhan Institute believe that the most likely carrier of coronavirus 2019-nCoV was a bat.
Moreover, most likely this virus is a hybrid of another coronavirus. They believe that this coronavirus is very similar to the one that occurred in 2003 (SARS).

Later, Xinguan Li and his colleagues from Wuhan University of Bioengineering recently suggested the sequencing of the 2019-nCoV genomes and other coronaviruses,
that the causative agent of the current epidemic arose as a result of the hybridization of the viruses of bats and snakes, and another group of scientists came to other conclusions.

Understanding Gaps: A Probable Virus Carrier, Research,1


28.01

There was a study indicating that the region of the receptor binding domain of the S gene was taken from the ZS bat-CoV virus (80% similarity).
This is a new virus with a more efficient receptor binding domain.

Understanding Gaps: A Probable Virus Carrier, Research,2<


28.01

imageSome people had no connection with the market

The initial hypothesis about the origin of the virus through the Wuhan market may not be entirely true. Details were described as the first 41 hospitalized patients in whom the new 2019-nCoV coronavirus was confirmed.
According to researchers, 13 out of 41 cases had no connection with the seafood market.

Researchers isolated the virus from the fluid obtained from the bronchi of patients, sequenced the RNA found there. These actions were carried out on five more patients.
That allows 2019-nCoV to be considered a snake virus, scientists have not found.

Understanding Gaps: A Probable Virus Carrier, Research,2


28.01?

It was found that the entry point of the 2019-nCoV virus into the human or animal organism is the same as in the case of the SARS SARS virus — ACE2 receptors.
The virus joins them with its suction cups and then injects its RNA into the cell.

Receptors are located in cells located deep in the lungs. SARS discovered in 2003 the method of penetration through ACE2, this makes the new coronavirus and SARS very similar.

The difference in the genome of different samples of the virus is very small, which indicates that the hybrid virus appeared no earlier than the end of October 2019.

Gaps in understanding the coronavirus Source: A study that was conducted hCoV-EMC


28.01

In a typical case, a typical coronavirus that comes from bats is transmitted to another animal species or person, it ceases to infect bat cells.

In the case of hCoV-EMC, he continued to do so, as was proven by the center.

Gaps in understanding:Summary


26.01

The most likely options are: hybridization with an unknown virus. Hybridization of viruses from a bat and a snake. More research is needed.
It is necessary to carry out work to refute some of the speculative theories.


Coronavirus most likely crossed the cross-species barrier to humans, most likely, through the intermediate link — a domestic or wild mammal (for example, MERS passed from bats through one-humped camels, and SARS through presumably vivver). Beta-cononaviruses are found only in mammals, including humans. Therefore, many do not believe in the option of snakes.

Features of coronavirus, including especially important.


TODO: Добавить новую главу в течении 1-7 дней.


Features of coronavirus: Incubation period


29.01?

The incubation period can reach 14 days.

Possible origin: Virus transmission methods: Contagiousness (Copy)


04.02

There is information about the high infectivity of the virus during the incubation period. (From 2.0 to 4.0) This was stated at a press conference in Beijing by the Head of the State Committee for Healthcare of China Ma Jiaovei.

Some experts do not believe about the contagiousness of the virus during the incubation period.
“I seriously doubt that Chinese government officials have any evidence to support this claim. “I don’t know any evidence that over 17 years of working with SARS and MERS coronaviruses (they often compare the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV with them — ed.), It was discovered that someone got infected during the incubation period,” said Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Research and Policy on Infectious Diseases at the University of Minnesota.

Possible origin:


26.01-28.01

Now we can assume several options:
Origin from bats and an unknown animal like the hCoV-EMC coronavirus or bats and snakes. In the second case, this is a unique case, since it is a transmission from cold-blooded, albeit partial.

Perhaps the infected bats hit the market in Wuhan, where they sell them, including for cooking in the form of soup, a local delicacy.
Markets such as the Wuhan fish market (where they sell different kinds of animals) are a haven for the spread of coronavirus, like the current one or what happened in 2003 (SARS). So the emergence of a new virus was only a matter of time. Some virologists regularly reminded of this.

Possible origin: Summary:required actions


26.01-28.01

Despite these reports, there are several important signs, most likely not taken into account, that could shed light on the characteristics of the virus.
For example: research is needed on the likelihood of a virus surviving in an environment outside the body, as well as studies on the interspecific transmission of the virus as was done with hCoV-EMC.

Thus, it would be nice to conduct a study on this topic, to conduct a similar experiment with a new coronavirus. So you can see other features of the new virus.

Possible origin:Summary:Suspicion<


26.01-28.01

If my suspicion is confirmed, then the new coronavirus has at least several variants of the disease vector:
humans, pigs and some species of bats. This is very bad since it is not known whether the authorities take this problem into account.

In addition, the high probability of mutations of this virus can be dangerous and can lead to the appearance of an easily passing interspecific barrier, a “universal” virus.
By removing the dependence of the virus on a particular receptor or by increasing the number of possible methods of infection, such a virus can be obtained.
Sooner or later, similar coronaviruses may appear, which can be very disastrous

Possible origin: Methods of spreading the virus


04.02

The bulk of the spread is airborne. Up to 100 million genomes per ml are found in nasopharyngeal secretions.
In 32% of cases in patients, on average, 3.2 days after the onset of the disease and in 68% on day 14
Viral RNA was detected in stool samples in 97% of patients 2 weeks after illness and in 42% of urine tests.
Fecal-oral transmission is strongly suspected.1.

Possible origin: Virus transmission methods: Contagiousness (Copy)


04.02

There is information about the high infectivity of the virus during the incubation period. This was stated at a press conference in Beijing by the Head of the State Committee for Healthcare of the People's Republic of China, Ma Jiaovei.

Some experts do not believe the contagiousness of the virus during the incubation period.
“I seriously doubt that Chinese government officials have any evidence to support this claim. “I don’t know any evidence that over 17 years of working with SARS and MERS coronaviruses (they often compare the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV with themed.), It was discovered that someone got infected during the incubation period,” said Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Research and Policy on Infectious Diseases at the University of Minnesota.

This section contains information on the protection and survival of the virus. Next Section: Statistics

Section 2: A Brief History of Medical Remedies


At the beginning of the XVII century, French physician Charles Lorm created a suit that was supposed to protect doctors from illness, created a suit for «plague doctors»
Composition of the plague doctor’s suit: Thick waxed coat, gloves, hat with brim, “crow” mask, which covered the whole face.

The nose of the mask was stuffed with hay, dried herbs (lavender, mint, cloves and so on), spices, camphor or laid with a sponge dipped in vinegar.
At that time, it was believed that the disease was caused by odors (miasma), so the mask was created to drive away from the smell but actually acted as a respirator.
The openings for the eyes in the mask were covered with glass, and the “plague doctor” himself interacted with the patient or the deceased mainly with a cane.

In the 1860s, the famous hygienic physician Joseph Listerov created the theory of antiseptics. Since that time, more attention has been paid to the protective medical “uniform.” The doctor’s white coat was introduced in the second half of the 19th century. Rubber gloves for protecting hands appeared in 1886 at a US military hospital.
A gauze-watt bandage appeared only in 1916-18 — as a protection against the Spanish epidemic. Already in the 20-30s, masks were required to be worn by medical personnel.

Section 2: Features of protection against the virus: Treatment and prevention



Protection Features: Treatment


26.01-28.01

ВОЗ не рекомендует какие-либо конкретные меры по лечению болезни дома. В случае симптомов рекомендуется обратиться за медицинской помощью.

04.02

It is possible that rather toxic ribavirin may be effective, which in itself has a teratogenic effect (can cause fetal malformations) and can lead to death due to suppression of blood formation. Therefore, it is impossible for pregnant women and the use is strictly under the supervision of a doctor. He has shown beneficial effects on SARS. In any case, it should not be used due to toxicity.

Protection Features: Treatment Methods (Copy)


27.01-01.02TODO: Добавить методы лечения

There are methods that can alleviate the most dangerous symptoms of the virus:
It is now known that as a temporary measure to reduce the symptoms of coronavirus, Chinese patients are treated with two HIV drugs — a combination of lopinavir and ritonavir, writes Bloomberg. No effective antiviral drugs against the virus exist today.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (EXMO) — oxygen saturation of the blood makes it possible to survive the most dangerous symptoms.

Protection features: Treatment methods. Question from the reader: Effect of ACE2 blockers


27.01-01.02TODO: Добавить методы лечения

Hi, I wanted to ask if COVID19 penetrates ACE2
can blockers of this enzyme help for treatment?
e.g. Lozatran yandex.ru/health/pills/product/lozartan-teva-29982/prices

Yes, they can help in the treatment, alleviation of symptoms. 1 and 1 . Results only in clinical cases.

However, the result will depend on the specific inhibitor, so some drugs can inhibit coronavirus only in words. Thus, such treatment is possible only in a hospital and with an already approved, tested inhibitor.

There are many variants of inhibitors that inhibit the virus in one way or another. And there are also many ways to do this.

Protection Features: Vaccines (Copy)


27.01-01.02

Now scientists are testing, including previously manufactured vaccines, intended for other coronaviruses at 2019-nCoV, as just stated
Head of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Xu Wenbo.
Another scientist is trying to enter the country and test samples. Success can make a difference. Otherwise, the vaccine will have to wait a very long time, up to several years.

The US and Russia are already developing the first vaccine options. A certain result is possible in a few months. Research and development are ongoing for MERS-CoV.

1/28/06/02?

Researchers at the University of Hong Kong said they had developed the 2019-nCoV coronavirus vaccine, which already killed 132 people. The team modified the conventional flu vaccine and added part of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus surface antigen to it. The authors believe that the vaccine will protect against both the flu and the Chinese coronavirus.

Doctors at the Rajawiti Hospital in Bangkok say a new approach to coronavirus treatment has improved several patients. According to unconfirmed information: oseltamivir + Lopinavir + Ritonavir.
The Thai Ministry of Health will have a discussion on Monday about this. The doctor accidentally increased the dose of one of the drugs.

Now the approach is used only in severe cases. It is too early to talk about the universality of this approach and it is not worth buying these drugs in the hope of self-medication. If this approach is confirmed in the world, it will be an additional opportunity to save patients and will be used in practice.

01/29/20120

The good news: Attempts to use all possible combinations have had their effect.
The good news: One of the antibodies that was created against the SARS epidemic of 17 years ago is able to neutralize the coronavirus of the new strain.
bioRxiv has material on this subject.

This refers to the CR3022 molecule, which is effective against the SARS virus. Scientists have determined that this antibody also actively joins the 2019-nCoV virus.

Other antibodies that are much more effective than CR3022 do not respond at all to 2019-nCoV. They target ACE2 ribosome binding sites. These antibodies could not bind the 2019-nCoV spike protein,

Coronaviruses are attached to cell receptors using a spike protein. This triggers changes in the structure of the spike protein and leads to fusion between the viral and cell membranes.

This indicates that the difference in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) region of SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV has a critical effect on the cross-reactivity of neutralizing antibodies, and that it is still necessary to develop new antibody-targeted antibodies produced by immune cells belonging to one cell clone that could specifically bind to 2019-nCoV RBD.

Information on the specific structure of the receptor-binding domain is also confirmed in another study. Read more at: Receptor binding domain as a target for the development of SARS vaccines.

Biologists believe that the use of CR3022 in combination with other substances «compatible» with the 2019 pathogen makes it possible to quickly synthesize the first drugs.

The good news: Australia has announced the successful creation of a laboratory version of the Chinese coronavirus.

02/01/20120

Researchers at the University of Hong Kong said they had developed the 2019-nCoV coronavirus vaccine. The team modified the conventional flu vaccine and added part of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus surface antigen to it. The authors believe that the vaccine will protect against both the flu and the Chinese coronavirus.
Unfortunately there is no more specific information.

03.02 2020

In Thailand, cases of cure patients were recorded using a combination of drugs. According to some reports: Oseltamivir (dosage was increased) + Lopinavir + Ritonavir. It is too early to talk about the full use of this method around the world. A meeting will be held at the Thai Ministry of Health on Monday. A possible application of the method will be discussed there.

Do not try to use a similar combination at home.
So far, the necessary studies on the effectiveness of the triple combination in such a dosage have not been carried out. The drugs have many side effects, some of which are severe, in addition, the drugs are quite expensive.
Even doctors use this option only in the most severe cases.

A similar combination has already been used in medical practice incl. separately

04.02 2020

GeoVax, a biotechnology company, has signed a letter of intent with BravoVax, a vaccine developer based in Wuhan, China, to jointly develop a coronavirus vaccine using the 2019-nCoV genetic sequences.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals is partnering with Beijing-based Advaccine Biotechnology to advance the development of the INO-4800 vaccine. The vaccine is a potential treatment for 2019-nCOV.

Clover Biopharmaceuticals is developing a recombinant subunit vaccine using patented Trimer-Tag technology. The company is developing a vaccine based on the S-Trimer protein of the 2019-nCoV virus, which is responsible for binding to the host cell and causing viral infection.

Vaxart is developing an oral recombinant tablet vaccine using its own VAAST oral vaccine platform.

CytoDyn considers Leronlimab (PRO 140). The drug is already in the second phase of clinical trials as a treatment for HIV.

Remdesivir (GS-5734): China has filed a new patent for a drug created by Gilead Sciences Inc., which, according to its scientists, can fight against coronavirus.

Biocryst Pharma Halidesivir (BCX4430) is a Potential Antiviral for Coronavirus

Section 2: Features of the virus protection: masks: Pros and Cons



Why WHO, other doctors do not recommend the use of masks. Why you can still use them



Cons of PPE


16.02

Usually referring to medical masks and not respirators. The effectiveness of medical masks is only if most people use them, or patients wear them to prevent the spread of the virus.
Cause a shortage of masks and respirators for doctors.
Some manufacturers warm their hands on masks. Some protective equipment can be quite expensive.
It is necessary to change or inactivate the virus on masks and respirators.
The difficulty of inactivating (destroying) the virus in masks and respirators.
You may forget to inactivate masks. It is necessary to keep personal statistics and control.
It may be necessary to understand the characteristics of the survivability of the virus and its inactivation (below in the article), to have the appropriate reagents and equipment.

Pros of PPE


16.02

There are a large number of cheap and completely reliable respirators until they are sold out.
The effectiveness of the respirators of the corresponding categories has been proved (in more detail below).
You can effectively protect yourself if you strictly follow the instructions.

Section 2: Features of the virus protection: masks: Features



Protection Features: Masks: If


26.01-28.01

If the virus is transmitted through the lung receptors (ACE2), it is likely that the virus is most likely to pass through the breath, the virus has not mutated, is not similar to hCoV-EMC.

Protection Features: Masks: Disadvantages


26.01-28.01

Conventional medical masks are an inadequate means of protection, especially if they become wet,
in addition, they must be regularly changed, which is usually ignored (especially in conditions of shortage or high prices for them, the press reports that a strong increase in the price of PPE is reported)

Conventional masks are ineffective. There are risks of infection through open eyes and the conjunctiva.
In addition, the unconscious habit of touching the face of many also does not contribute to protection. Therefore, fully enclosed gas masks, respirators are preferable.
The very ratio of the size of the virus to the fibers of the dressings is also not optimistic. Other scientists also consider respirators to be necessary.

More details above in the paragraph Cons of PPE and Pros of PPE.

Summary: Respirators can be used.


Therefore, it is quite possible to use respirators. You can quite effectively protect yourself if you strictly follow the instructions.
In any case, you should not risk it: use gloves and cover any skin areas with clothes or glasses in the absence of protective clothing.

Protection Features: Masks: Best Option


26.01-28.01

Therefore, it is better to use gas masks or respirators with glasses, as a means of protection, devoid of the shortcomings of medical masks and light respirators.

The WHO publication disease-commodity-package states the requirements for a respirator:
It is made of transparent plastic and provides good visibility for both the medical worker and the patient, the adjustable tape should fit snugly to the head and fit snugly to the forehead, resistant to fog (preferably), completely cover the face, can be reusable (made of durable material that can be cleaned and sanitized) or disposable.

  • standard directive ЕС 86/686 / EEC, EN 166/2002,
  • ANSI / ISEA Z87.1-2010
  • or equivalent

In other sources: not lower than N95with a HEPA filter. According to Russian standards, the analogue of N95 will be FFP2, N99 — FFP3. Thanks @ Alyoshka1976 remark.
You can read about Respiratory Protection and Disinfection:
Respiratory Protection and Disinfection FAQ.
Respiratory Protection and Disinfection.

Section 2: Features of virus protection: conventional mask: Research


Concerning more specific data: A couple of studies were conducted on the effectiveness of masks, most of which were field studies,
examined groups of patients on the effectiveness of measures. Check out: 1 and 2

A prospective cluster-randomized study was done that compared surgical masks, unverified P2 masks, and the absence of masks
in the prevention of influenza-like diseases (ILI) in households. It has been found that adherence to the mask significantly reduces the risk of infection with ILI,
but <50% of participants wore masks most of the time.

It was concluded that the use of face masks However, during a severe pandemic, when the use of face masks may be more
the spread of the pandemic in households can be reduced. Thus, the efficiency will increase with the number of% of mask carriers.

Virus survival: The effect of water is mostly positive for the virus. (Copy)


04.02

Water, a frequent means of transmitting viruses, can contribute to their survival, but many environmental factors will adversely affect the virus population.
Keeping the dressing wet can help the virus survive.
One study on water: A study of the survival of a typical virus in the aquatic environment

There are suggestions that the environment that forms after a certain time in masks contributes to the conservation of viruses for a longer time.
Because of this, there is a certain risk of infection by touching the mask and carrying the virus.

Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy)


04.02

Filtration efficiency of individual face filter respirators (FFR) and NIOSH approved N95 and P100 particulate filter cartridges,
has been tested against viable MS2 virus, a non-pathogenic bacteriophage aerosolized from a liquid suspension. Its size (23-28 nanometers)
The tests were carried out under two cyclic flow conditions (minute volumes 85 and 135 l / min) and two constant flow rates (85 and 270 l / min).
The average penetration of viable MS2 through FFR / N95 and P100 cartridges was typically less than 2 and 0.03%, respectively, under all flow conditions.

Given that the minimum samples of coronaviruses exceed the size of MS2 at least 40-60nm.
An acceptable safety margin for respirators FFP2 and N95 can be stated with a good face seal.
A particle filter respirator N99 (FFP3) filters at least 99% of the particles in the air, but is not oil resistant. 1

Section 2: Host Coronavirus Adaptability


16.02

In simple words, the paragraph below can be explained as follows: The virus can adapt to the host, has some tricky mechanisms, it was not difficult for him to cross the border between animals and humans.

Virus Survival: Adaptability of the Virus.


04.02

Many of the coronavirus proteins expressed in the infected cell promote the interaction of the coronavirus with the host.
For example, by interacting with the host cell to create the optimal environment for replication of coronavirus,
by altering the expression of the host gene or counteracting the antiviral defense of the host.
Many of these interactions affect the outcome of the infection, including adaptation and cross-species crossing.

Virus survival: Interspecific transition


04.02

The number of mutations in the receptor-binding domain of the SARS-CoV spike (S) protein; the interspecific limit for the transition was insignificant.1.Li et al. 2005c (см. Главу 2). .

Chemicals that inhibit or delay the physicochemical processes of peptidases do not affect the penetration of the virus.
This indicates that the use and penetration of the SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV receptors and, therefore, 2019-nCoV are independent of the activity of the peptidase receptor.
They depend only on binding to these specific host receptors.1.

Section 2: Introductory information on the survivability of viruses.



In the absence of host cells, viral populations in the environment can only decrease or remain stable.
Evaluation and analysis of the shape and intensity of this reduction represent the main objectives of viral inactivation studies.

Virus survival: Effect of temperature, a key factor.


04.02

An increase in temperature is the main factor influencing the survival of the virus in the environment through protein denaturation,
nucleic acid damage or decay of the outer envelope of the virus (capsid) Inactivation mechanism

Higher temperatures mean faster inactivation of the virus. At low temperatures above zero, viruses can survive for long periods of time, often longer than the duration of the study. Cold Survival
At higher temperatures, the viral population will be reduced by several orders of magnitude over several days.
Decreasing the population at higher temperatures
The freezing temperature allows viruses to remain stable for at least a couple of months, but in the early days, an initial decrease can be observed. Virus survival at temperatures below zero.

A minimal decrease in infectivity was found after 21 days at 4 degrees Celsius. Heating to 56 ° C inactivates the coronavirus quickly. 1 .
SARS-Cov is stable in feces and urine at room temperature for at least 1-2 days, especially if diarrhea is present (high pH);

Virus survival: Question from the reader..


04.02

There is a question about heating in the Neuromantix building: 0 about heating in the building.
0 The results indicate that additional calculations of the correlation of relative humidity and different temperatures are needed.
It is too difficult to choose the optimal ratio of temperature and humidity at home. An increase in temperature gives a better result in most cases.

Most likely there are no practical studies to increase the temperature in the room as a factor in reducing risks.
However, based on the temperature information, you can try to increase the temperature. Humidity can be chosen to taste.
However, it is impossible to fully defend yourself in this way. 0
To ensure a high rate of inactivation of the virus, it is necessary to provide a greater temperature than 28-30 degrees.

Virus survival: Humidity, an additional factor.


04.02

The relationship between inactivation and relative humidity is not monotonous, there was a higher survival rate or a higher protective effect at low relative humidity (20%)
and high relative humidity (80%) than with moderate relative humidity (50%). There was also evidence of the interaction between AT and RH. 0

Virus Survival: Effect of Temperature, Key Factor. (Copy)


Virus survival was increased by lowering AT (temperature). A similar relationship between AT and virus inactivation was observed for enveloped viruses in liquids and aerosols.
The coronavirus data obtained in this study suggest that although viral inactivation rates are lower at lower antibodies,
nevertheless, the effects of REs on the survival of viruses at each AT are different.

With surrounding ATs (around 20 ° C), coronaviruses can survive for 2 days, losing only 1–2 log 10 of infectivity, depending on relative humidity.
With decreasing temperature, the survival of the virus will rise. The virus can survive weeks at a temperature of -1.

Distribution Impact: Summary


04.02


The bulk of the spread is airborne. Up to 100 million genomes per ml are found in nasopharyngeal secretions.
In 32% of cases in patients, on average, 3.2 days after the onset of the disease and in 68% on day 14
Viral RNA was detected in stool samples in 97% of patients 2 weeks after illness and in 42% of urine tests.
In order to get infected, you usually need to be within a certain radius (usually 1.5-2 m) from the infected.
Perhaps the influence of a genetic predisposition and characteristics as in vulnerable groups (for example, lowered immunity).
Either (contact) to transfer viral particles from objects, or direct contact with mucous surfaces.

Fecal-oral transmission is strongly suspected. 1 .

My opinion: I can say that uniformity of infection is almost impossible. There are situations with a positive opportunity for the virus to spread, and vice versa.
«Positive» situations are much less than negative. Therefore, all these models can do little.

Virus survival: Effect of sunlight activity.


04.02

Sunlight is another important factor causing viral inactivation by ultraviolet radiation.
The presence of an indigenous microbial population negatively affects the survival of the virus.
The presence of organic matter in water has a positive effect on the survival of the virus. Other factors responsible for increased viral inactivation,
include the presence of disinfectants.

Sunlight activity can be explained by damage to nucleic acids through the formation of pyrimidine dimers or other products,
other mechanisms may be involved, such as the excitation of active substances present in the outer shell of viruses or in the environment.

Virus survival: The effect of water is mainly positive for the virus.


04.02

Water, a frequent means of transmitting viruses, can contribute to their survival, but many environmental factors will adversely affect the virus population.
Keeping the dressing wet can help the virus survive.
One study on water: A study of the survival of a typical virus in the aquatic environment

Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy


04.02

Filtration efficiency of individual face filter respirators (FFR) and NIOSH approved N95 and P100 particulate filter cartridges,
has been tested against viable MS2 virus, a non-pathogenic bacteriophage aerosolized from a liquid suspension. Its size (23-28 nanometers)
The tests were carried out under two cyclic flow conditions (minute volumes 85 and 135 l / min) and two constant flow rates (85 and 270 l / min).
The average penetration of viable MS2 through FFR / N95 and P100 cartridges was typically less than 2 and 0.03%, respectively, under all flow conditions.

Given that the minimum samples of coronaviruses exceed the size of MS2 at least 40-60nm.
An acceptable safety margin for respirators FFP2 and N95 can be stated with a good face seal.
A particle filter respirator N99 (FFP3) filters at least 99% of the particles in the air, but is not oil resistant. 1

Summary: Why you need to change the mask. (Copy)


04.02

Over time, the protective capabilities of respirators degrade.
There are suggestions that the environment that forms after a certain time in masks contributes to the conservation of viruses for a longer time.
Because of this, there is a certain risk of infection by touching the mask and carrying the virus.
There is a Ukrainian scientific article for filtering respirators. The value of degradation is indicated.
1

Therefore, PPI inactivation methods are important. FAQ on respiratory protection and disinfection.
Otherwise, one could not change the mask and not inactivate the viral particles on the protective equipment. Virus RNA can exist on objects for a very long time. The protective capabilities of PPE are not permanent. After a certain time, depending on the protection class, etc. they exhaust their margin of safety. After this, the transfer of viral particles from protective equipment is possible.
So there are two options: to extend the service life (including inactivating PPE) or change them.

The number of bacteria on the surface of the mask increases with increasing operating time; a significant difference was found between 4-6-hour and 0-hour groups (p <0.05).
1.Replacement of masks is necessary due to the factor of a drop in the quality of antibacterial protection.For example, here is the degradation of static charge:
1,2

It is likely that coronavirus retention time will increase on breath-heated and moist dressings. Practical studies are needed.
Probably the features for inactivating 2019-nCoV are generally similar to SARS, but I would like to see real practical research on this.
The factor of preservation of the virus in an open environment may be another unaccounted factor affecting the spread of the virus.

Water, a frequent means of transmitting viruses, can contribute to their survival, but many environmental factors will adversely affect the virus population.
Keeping the dressing wet can help the virus survive.:A study of the survival of a typical virus in the aquatic environment

Regarding more specific data: A couple of studies were conducted on the effectiveness of masks, and most of them were field studies, and groups of patients were examined for the effectiveness of the measures.
Check out:1 and 2

The impact of other measures on the situation


04.02


Evaluation of other measures: school closure1 and randomized controlled handwash studies
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

The impact of other measures on the situation, nose washing, answer to the reader’s question


04.02

There is not much information on nasal irrigation (rinsing the nose). 1
Naturally, there is no information on 2019-nСov or SARS. Conducting such studies is very difficult. There are a large number of washing methods. Not all of them have been investigated.
1
Significant improvements have been made in the control group. This may be suitable as an additional method of risk reduction in addition to hand washing and other methods.
However, each exit from the house becomes a whole mission and it will be difficult to keep track of everything.

Virus survival: The effect of water is mainly positive for the virus.



SARS data are presented. Given the similar characteristics of coronaviruses (differences appear, for example, in the receptor-binding domain (RBD)), the situation can be reliably predicted.

The effect of other measures on inactivation


04.02

Other factors responsible for enhancing viral inactivation include the presence of disinfectants such as chlorine
1,2,1,1, extreme pH 1,1,copper1 or aeration. Some factors, such as water hardness, are less reliable.1

The effect of treatment on inactivation


04.02

image
The relatively large size of 2019-nCoV (~ 29.9 thousand base pairs and an average of 120 nm, min 60) and the lipid membrane make it susceptible to stages with virus inactivation, including used during production processes,
such as surfactants, solvents (S / D) 1 , waste management (low pH incubation), use of caprylate, pasteurization 1
or heat treatment, 1 , 2 ,
nanofiltration or fractionation processes… The effectiveness of these processes has been demonstrated on other model lipid-coated viruses, which are very similar to 2019 nCoV, for example, human coronavirus 229E and OC43, SARS-CoV and porcine coronavirus TGEV.

The effect of ultraviolet radiation on inactivation, an answer to a reader’s question


04.02

Based on 1 and 1 SARS was inactivated by ultraviolet light (UV) at 254 nm,
heat treatment at 65 ° C or more, alkaline (pH> 12) or acid (pH <3) conditions, treatment with formalin and glutaraldehyde.
Liquid samples of bovine plasma did not contain detectable viable PPV after 15 minutes of exposure (cumulative UV-C irradiation of 2295 J / l) 1
The bad news is the SARS-like virus (2019-nCov) is inactivated for a period of at least 15 minutes at 56 degrees or 254 nm. Better than 20 minutes at 254 nm. This worsens the effects. Not every time you want to spend so much time.
1 With a shorter time, the probability of the survival of viral particles increases. virus inactivation with little information.

The effect of ozone on inactivation, an answer to a reader’s question


05.02

The proportion of live viruses on the surface decreased exponentially with increasing doses of ozone. 0 .
Viruses needed ozone doses of 20-112 min (mg / m3) (contact time [min] multiplied by the ozone concentration [mg / m3) for 90% inactivation and 47-223 min (mg / m3) for 99% inactivation.
The ozone dose for inactivation of 99% was two times higher than for inactivation of 90%. The required ozone concentration at a relative humidity of 85% was lower than at a relative humidity of 55%.

Section2: Summary: Information about the survivability of the coronavirus on surfaces.


Given the basics of the theory presented in the previous paragraph, we can try to predict the features of the survival of the virus outside the body.

Based on the data, you can be more or less confident in a sufficient margin of safety compared to 2019-nCoV.
SARS-Cov virus particles are sensitive to treatment with lipid solvents, nonionic detergents, oxidizing agents;

Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces: Summary


04.02


In a scientific article, environmental surfaces were recognized as probable factors,
contributing to the transmission of nosocomial viral infections 1 .

The question of whether hospital surfaces play a role in the spread of nosocomial viral infection has become particularly relevant in connection with recent news.

Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces: Summary,2


04.02


During SARS Coronavirus Outbreak (SARS-CoV), SARS-CoV nucleic acids were detected on surfaces and inanimate objects
0 , 0

It is likely that surfaces can be sources of virus transmission. Risk assessment requires data on inactivation of the virus on environmental surfaces and data on
how environmental inactivation affects the inactivation of the virus, such as air temperature (AT) and relative humidity (RH), and more.

Statistics: Learning problems (copy):


04.02

Due to the fact that the study of the most dangerous coronaviruses requires specially trained personnel working in laboratory conditions of biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) or 4,
there are big problems in the study of this virus, and only limited data are available on the survival of the coronavirus and the response to stressful environmental factors.

The results show that when large quantities of surrogates are deposited, these viruses can persist for several days on surfaces in the AT environment and
in a wide range of relative humidity levels (from 20 to 60% relative humidity) typical of healthcare environments.

Probabilities of keeping the virus on surfaces without inactivation


04.02

Coronavirus may be more resistant to surface inactivation than previously studied human coronaviruses. SARS-CoV was reported to survive for 36 hours on stainless steel
0 However, the AT and RH conditions were not presented for the previous experiment, which makes comparison difficult.
Rabenau et al. 0 reported a much slower inactivation of SARS-CoV on the polystyrene surface
(decrease of 4 log 10 after 9 days; AT and RH conditions were not reported)
which is consistent with some observations of TGEV and MHV

Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces without inactivation: influence of the main factor


04.02

Virus survival was increased by lowering AT (temperature). A similar relationship between AT and virus inactivation was observed for enveloped viruses in liquids and aerosols.
The coronavirus data obtained in this study suggest that although viral inactivation rates are lower at lower antibodies,
nevertheless, the effects of REs on the survival of viruses at each AT are different.

With surrounding ATs (around 20 ° C), coronaviruses can survive for 2 days, losing only 1–2 log 10 of infectivity, depending on relative humidity.
With decreasing temperature, the survival of the virus will rise. The virus can survive weeks at a temperature of -1.

Section 2: Summary: Virus Potential Viability



Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces without inactivation: Summary.


04.02

Based on survival data, it can be assumed that enveloped viruses can remain infectious on surfaces for a long time,
so that people can come into contact with them, which creates a risk of infection, which leads to infection and possible transmission of the disease.

Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy)


04.02

Filtration efficiency of individual face filter respirators (FFR) and NIOSH approved N95 and P100 particulate filter cartridges,
has been tested against viable MS2 virus, a non-pathogenic bacteriophage aerosolized from a liquid suspension. Its size (23-28 nanometers)
The tests were carried out under two cyclic flow conditions (minute volumes 85 and 135 l / min) and two constant flow rates (85 and 270 l / min).
The average penetration of viable MS2 through FFR / N95 and P100 cartridges was typically less than 2 and 0.03%, respectively, under all flow conditions.

Given that the minimum samples of coronaviruses exceed the size of MS2 at least 40-60nm.
An acceptable safety margin for respirators FFP2 and N95 can be stated with a good face seal.
A particle filter respirator N99 (FFP3) filters at least 99% of the particles in the air, but is not oil resistant.
1

Summary: Why you need to change the mask. (Copy)


04.02 Todo: Добавить больше примеров, добавить основной аргумент в коментах

Over time, the protective capabilities of respirators degrade.
There are suggestions that the environment that forms after a certain time in masks contributes to the conservation of viruses for a longer time.
Because of this, there is a certain risk of infection by touching the mask and carrying the virus.
There is a Ukrainian scientific article for filtering respirators. The value of degradation is indicated.
1

This is not related to viruses, but the number of bacteria on the surface of the mask increases with increasing operating time; a significant difference was found between 4-6-hour and 0-hour groups (p <0.05).
1. Replacement of masks is necessary due to the factor of a drop in the quality of antibacterial protection.
For example, here is the degradation of static charge:1,2

It is likely that coronavirus retention time will increase on breath-heated and moist dressings. Practical studies are needed.
Probably the features for inactivating 2019-nCoV are generally similar to SARS, but I would like to see real practical research on this.
The factor of preservation of the virus in an open environment may be another unaccounted factor affecting the spread of the virus.

Water, a frequent means of transmitting viruses, can contribute to their survival, but many environmental factors will adversely affect the virus population.
Keeping the dressing wet can help the virus survive. One such study: A study of the survival of a typical virus in the aquatic environment

Regarding more specific data: A couple of studies were conducted on the effectiveness of masks, and most of them were field studies, and groups of patients were examined for the effectiveness of the measures.
Check out: 1 and 2

Section 3: Sars Incidence Data (For Comparison


26.01-28.01 TODO: Обновить всю статистику


SARS Statistics: Cases


26.01-28.01

in 2003, 8437 cases of the disease were noted, of which 813 were fatal. Undoubtedly, 2019-nCoV is the leader in the number of infected among coronaviruses causing severe respiratory syndrome.
From coronaviruses known from the 60s with milder consequences, much more fell ill.

SARS Statistics: Mortality


26.01-28.01

In 2003 (SARS), about 9% of patients with a confirmed diagnosis died. Now mortality has dropped to 3-4% due to effective treatment.

SARS Statistics: Mortality by Age


01/26/28.01

Mortality was much higher in patients older than 50 years, reaching a mortality rate approaching 50% for this subgroup of patients.

Section 3: 2019-nCoV incidence data


26.01-28.01 TODO: Обновить всю статистику в течении 1-7 дней.


Statistics: mortality probability: by age


27.01-28.01

Coronavirus typical mortality probability statistics (Actual)
the probability for those under the age of 24 is below 1%. At the age of 25-44 years — up to 6%, 44-64 years — up to 15%, from 65 years and older — above 55%.

Coronavirus typical mortality probability statistics (Actual)
Of the total number of patients with Chinese coronavirus, 80% are people over 60 years old.

Statistics: probability of infection: by age


27.01-28.01

Compared to non-smokers, smokers are at a significantly greater risk of complications.
29.01

Statistics on the number of cured: (January 28, 2020)
Up to forty-five patients were cured and were discharged from the hospital (49 today).
25% in China were patients with a severe course of infection (of which 16% were severe, 5% were in critical condition and 4% were dead).

29.01

Infected in 2020 by the ages of 28 and 89. The youngest of the deceased is 48 years old, and the oldest is 89, which generally corresponds to age-related mortality rates for coronaviruses:

Probability statistics for other groups


01/27/28.01

People with weakened immunity and chronic diseases are also at risk.
The first death of a doctor from coronavirus was recorded. The first death was recorded in Beijing. A 50-year-old man was injured. On January 8, he visited Wuhan and contracted pneumonia seven days after returning to Beijing.

A 2014 study showed that pregnant women infected with MERS had stillbirths, so similar cases are possible with 2019-nCoV.
Recently, the first case of infection of a child.

There have been cases of infection from asymptomatic carriers. 1
Two people contacted an asymptomatic Chinese woman sent to Germany, (Note. Later, she said that there were symptoms, but not so much)
In all 4 infected, the disease occurred in a mild form. The probability of infection from asymptomatic carriers is rather small.

Statistics: Cure Probability


27.01-28.01

Statistics on the number of cured: (January 28, 2020)
Up to forty-five patients were cured and were discharged from the hospital (49 today).

Statistics: death toll (More data in the chart table. From 11.02)


Каждый день

01 26, 2020: More than 60 (63 people), according to official figures.
01 27, 2020: 82
01 28, 2020: 106
01 29, 2020: 132
01 30, 2020: 170
01 31, 2020: 213
02.01, 2020: 259
02.02, 2020: 305
02.03, 2020: 362
02.04, 2020: 427
02.05, 2020: 492
02.06, 2020: 565
02.07, 2020: 638
02.08, 2020: 724
02.09, 2020: 813
02.10, 2020: 910
02.11, 2020: 1018
02.12, 2020: 1115
02.13, 2020: 1363
02.14, 2020: ~ 1400
02.15, 2020: 1526
02.16, 2020: 1669
02.17, 2020: 1775
02.18, 2020: 1813
02.19, 2020: 2010
02.20, 2020: 2126
02.21, 2020: 2247
02.22, 2020: 2360
02.23, 2020: 2462
02.24, 2020: 2522
02.24, 2020: 2625
02.25, 2020: 2702
02.26, 2020: 2763
02.27, 2020: 2801
02.28, 2020: human
02 39:2923
01.03 2020 2980
02.03 2020:3048


Statistics: the number of issued


22.02

Healed 21,318
Out: (Healed + Died) -5 (Cases of reinfection): 23765.
23.02

Healed 23,092
02.03

45,156 (94%)+3,057 (6%) =48,213 -{5-10}

Statistics: Number of suspicions


23.02

China:4148(+882)

Statistics: number of common cases


21.02

42,756 (79%) patients with ordinary cases
02.03

33,493 (82%)

Statistics: number of severe cases


21.02

11,551 (21%) patients with serious and critical cases.
23 deaths in countries other than China.
02.03

7,375 (18%)

24.02

A minimum of 27 deaths.
26.02

A minimum of 50 deaths.
27.02

South Korea 13,11,8
Diamond Princess 4,4,4
Italy 12,11,7
Japan 3,1,1
Iran 19,16,14
Hong Kong 2,2,2
Taiwan 1,1,1
France 2,1,1
Philippines 1,1,1
A minimum of 57 deaths.
28.02

70(13new)
29.02

89died(19new)
01.03

South Korea 18,17,13,13,11,8
Diamond Princess 6,4,4,4,4,4
Italy 29,21,17,12,11,7
Japan 6,5,4,3,1,1
Iran 43,34,26,19,16,14
Hong Kong 2,2,2,2,2,2,2
Taiwan 1,1,1,1,1
France 2,2,2,2,1,1
Philippines 1,1,1,1,1
United States 1 ,,,,,,
Thailand 1 ,,,,,,
United Kingdom 1 ,,,,,,
Australia 1 ,,,,,,
???
Ecuador 1 ,,,,,,
at least 112(23) deaths
02.03

South Korea 26,18,17,13,13,11,8
Diamond Princess 7,6,4,4,4,4
Italy 41(34),29,21,17,12,11,7
Japan 6,6,5,4,3,1,1
Iran 54,43,34,26,19,16,14
Hong Kong 2,2,2,2,2,2,2
Taiwan 1,1,1,1,1,1
France 2,2,2,2,2,1,1
Philippines 1,1,1,1,1,1
United States 2,1,,,,,,
Thailand 1,1,,,,,,
United Kingdom 1,1,,,,,,
San Marino 1,,,,,,
Australia 1,1,,,,,,
at least 145-138(+33)
03.03

South Korea 28
Italy 52
Iran 66
Diamond Princess 7
Japan 6
France 3
United 6
Hong 2
Thailand 1
Taiwan 1
Australia 1
Philippines 1
San Marino 1
at least 175-174(+27|+37)

South Korea 33
Iran 77
Italy 79
Diamond Princess 6
Japan 6
France 4
United States 9
Spain 1
Hong Kong 2
Thailand 43 1
Taiwan 42 1
Australia 39 1
San Marino 10 1
Philippines 3 1
Iraq 32
«minimum»: 222
South Korea 35
Italy 107
Iran 92
Diamond Princess 6
Japan 6
France 4
Spain 2
United States 11
Hong Kong 2
Australia 2
Iraq 2
Thailand 1
Taiwan 42 1
San Marino 10 1
Philippines3 1
«minimum»: 273
06.03

South Korea42
Italy 148
Iran 107
Diamond Princess 6
France 7
Japan 6
Spain 3
United States 10
Switzerland 1
United Kingdom 1
Hong Kong 2
Australia 2
Thailand 1
Taiwan 1
San Marino 1
Philippines 1
339
07.03

South Korea42
Iran 124
Italy 197
Diamond Princess 6
France 7
Japan 6
Spain 5
United States 14
Switzerland 1
United Kingdom 2
Hong Kong 2
Netherlands 1
Australia 2
Thailand 1
Taiwan 1
Iraq 2
San Marino 1
Philippines 1
529

Statistics: Cumulative cases (More data in the chart table. From 11.02)


Everyday

Statistics: Cumulative cases (More data in the chart table. From 11.02)



January 26, 2020: 1300 (real) to 1700 (hypothetical, according to my methodology)
January 27, 2020: 2989 (real yesterday, 2000 real, Reuters) up to 3000 hypothetical
January 28, 2020: Over 4,000 (real) 6,000 -8,000 hypothetical cases.
January 29, 2020: 6062 people (lower bound of the forecast). 8,000 to 11,000 hypothetical cases.
January 30, 2020: 7875 (lower bound of the forecast) .9500 -13000 hypothetical cases.
January 31, 2020: 9816 (lower bound of the forecast). 11000-16500 hypothetical cases.
February 01, 2020: 11943 (lower bound of the forecast) .14000-15550 hypothetical cases.
February 02, 202014562 (Lower boundary of the forecast). 16,000-20000 hypothetical cases.
February 03, 2020: 17388 (lower bound of the forecast). 21600-29000
February 04, 2020: 20628 (Lower forecast line) 23500-30000.
February 05, 2020: 24540 (Lower forecast line) 24900-31000.
February 6, 2020: 28262 (Lower forecast line) 30000-39500.
February 7, 2020: 31453 (Lower forecast line) 35500-41000.
February 08, 2020: 34676 (Lower forecast line) 38500-45000.
February 9, 2020: 37562 (Average forecast boundary) 32500-40000.
February 10, 2020: 40416 (Lower forecast line)
February 11, 2020: 43101 (Lower forecast line)
February 12, 2020: 45171 (Lower forecast line)
February 13, 2020: 60108 (Exceeding the forecast maximum, It was 55000) (Note 14.02 Look below)
February 14, 2020: 64436 (Lower forecast line)
February 15, 2020: 67102 (Average forecast boundary)
February 16, 2020: 69264 (Average forecast boundary)
February 17, 2020: 71330 (Average forecast boundary)
February 18, 2020: 73433 (Average forecast boundary)
February 19, 2020: 75196 (Average forecast boundary)
February 20, 2020: 75726 (Average forecast boundary)
February 21, 2020: 76717 (Average forecast boundary)
February 22, 2020: 77767 (Average forecast boundary)
February 23, 2020: 78724 (Average forecast boundary)
February 24, 2020: 79363 (Average forecast boundary)
February 25, 2020: 80131 (Lower forecast line)
February 26, 2020: 81600 (Average forecast boundary)
February 27, 2020: 82140 (Average forecast boundary)
February 28, 2020: 84990 (Average forecast boundary)
February 29, 2020: 85173 (Average forecast boundary)
03/01/20120: `87000 (Average forecast boundary)
03/02/20120: 89,002 people (Average forecast margin)
03/03/20120: 90,133 people (Average forecast margin)


Section 3: Statistics: Country Data


Every day, Spoiler with detailed country information has been deleted so far. Information is outdated

Statistics for the Chinese provinces here: I have more accurate country data.

image

Another 25 widget cards on which you can monitor the distribution, but I do not have time
Widget for showing the number of cases: (Actual)
  • There was information canceled
  • Poland 1 case
  • Indonesia 8 cases (3 earlier)
  • Saudi Arabia 1 case (28th)
  • Pakistan 1 case (30th)
  • Kenya1 case (28th)
  • Equatorial Guinea 1 case (30th)
  • Sudan: 2 cases (29th 1 )
  • Brazil 9 cases (1 new, 28) 1


Incomplete data from 12/31 to 02/19
image Incomplete data for the entire period


More details also:1
Recent WHO report synced plus data from other sources


deathf.jpg
Photo widget to calculate the number of infected

Section 3: Statistics: Notes and Summary


10.02 Some of the data on the schedule disappeared, I had to reload.

Good news. Judging by official data, distribution is slowing down. Because of this, the boundaries of the forecast are quite large.
Perhaps the lag from antiviral measures already affects. The speed of distribution according to official sources has decreased. Good news.

My statistics, some of the data may differ


14.02

Such a large replenishment of the 13th number is associated with a possible peak. However, due to the refusal in China to take statistics of patients without symptoms, the statistics are distorted. Is peak falsification possible?

Statistics: Summary


26.01-28.01

It’s already possible to admit much higher base mortality (not considering the factor of good treatment),
perhaps the healthcare system is at the limit of its capabilities. In the worst case, the ratio of mortality to infected can increase to SARS with the increasing collapse of the healthcare system.
We can conclude that while the health care system has not reached its limit. Therefore, mortality is still much lower than mortality under normal conditions, without medical care (Basic mortality).

26.01

Unfortunately, it is not known how many actually died, but so far the mortality is lower than that of SARS, and the authorities reacted late to the coronavirus.

That is, mutations may have a negative effect on mortality, but the delayed virus factor cannot be ruled out,
either very lucky / the work of the authorities was more effective compared to 2003. However, there remains a high probability of an increase in the number of cases.

Section 3: Approximate Simple Assessment Scheme


26.01 This section gives the probabilities of a possible development of the situation.

We set the maximum probability for the airport in Wuhan, put a much lower probability for the airports. For airports in other areas and slower transportation methods, while taking the weighted average probability for coronaviruses… for the last 5-7 days before the airport closes

We take a slightly greater probability than from the beginning of the spread, we try to take into account how much could get sick, taking into account the age and probability of catching the disease, as well as the possible consequences of the incubation period, and carry out the calculation.

Statistics: Forecast: Assumptions:


26.01-28.01 TODO: Обновить модель в течении 1-7 дней.

In addition, another assumption is possible: if the number of cases can be greater, then is it possible to increase the number of possible deaths on the basis of these thoughts about the possible number.

In addition: achieving a certain threshold of patients complicates treatment, worsens quality, including through a total shortage of medical supplies.
Therefore, this factor should be taken into account.

And, given the large incubation period, a large number of countries with disease situations, etc.
the number of cases may be greater based on the methods of probabilistic spread of the virus, for example, given the number of passengers transported per day,
for example, only one Wuhan International Airport served 19 million passengers, of which 3,400 flew daily to other countries.

The characteristics of the coronavirus, including especially important: Distribution without symptoms (copy)


01/29?

As the preprint of the medrXiv article emphasizes, carriers spread the virus without any symptoms, which was one of my warnings when I started writing this article a few days ago.
It all depends on what progression the virus will develop before the end of the period.

16.02,? TODO: indicate the news

This has recently been refuted. Symptoms do exist but are very weak. So the danger is partially preserved.
The asymptomatic transmission of the virus has been refuted. Symptoms: muscle pain, fatigue and temperature. The transmission during the incubation period has not been refuted.
1

The characteristics of the coronavirus, including especially important: Distribution without symptoms (copy)


29.01?

The most dangerous indicator is the factor of reproduction of the infection, indicating how many healthy people are infected by one sick person.
This number lies in the range from 3.6 to 4 (approx. 2.0-4.0). And this means that it is necessary to reduce the ways for transmission of the infection in 75% of cases in order to stop the growth of the epidemic. Calculations in the model were carried out according to data on January 21.

According to epidemiologists from the University of Lancaster, the Glasgow Virus Research Center, and the University of Florida Gainesville, only 5% of cases were detected in Wuhan.

For comparison: in the SARS virus in 2003, the infection reproduction factor was 2.0–3.5. However, this virus was not transmitted during the incubation period,
and the symptoms were more pronounced. The reproduction factor after quarantine decreased to 0.4.

The characteristics of the coronavirus, including especially important: Distribution without symptoms Opinion(Копия)


29.01?

Harvard epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Dean emphasizes on Twitter that “he’s never seen a 3.8 *** in his life” and expects a “thermonuclear pandemic.” (*** Most likely for typical coronaviruses)
He also quotes from another study, where the infection reproduction factor is estimated at 2.8.

Summary: Assessment Models for Other Professionals



Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 1


26.01-28.01

Perhaps Professor Neil Ferguson of the Center for Global Analysis of Infectious Diseases MRC at Imperial College London, has his own methodology and it is different, they counted at least 1,700 cases yesterday. New data on patients (2000 people) correlate with assumptions. Thus, it is possible today at least 2500-3000 patients hypothetically.

Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 2


27.01

Similar calculations are provided by another model presented by experts from Hong Kong. According to SCMP, there are already 44,000 infected in Wuhan, and the infection has spread to all the big cities of mainland China. In this model, the number of cases doubles every 6.2 days.

Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 3


27.01

For Wuhan, the 11 millionth city in China that became the epicenter of the epidemic, a team led by Jonathan Reed calculated
that while maintaining the current reproductive factor, there will be 191,529 infected.
Closing cities will not help stop the Chinese coronavirus, although it will delay its spread to some extent, experts say, interviewed by Business Insider.
I also pointed it out above. This will only affect the future situation and that is not so good.
The only plus is low mortality. The only plus is low mortality relative to SARS.

Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 4


27.01

According to German experts from the University of Gottingen, there has not yet been a peak in the distribution of 2019-nCoV, and March will be a real test for the world. In this case, the number of infected can exceed the result of SARS (about 8 thousand),
however, I expect a much lower mortality rate than SARS per 1000 cases, not more than 40 people per thousand.

Statistics: Forecast: My model


26.01-28.01TODO: добавить модель

My model is much more modest: See in the «Data on incidence» section, a line for a hypothetical number of cases.
in the future, from 8000 (Confirm already tomorrow or the day after tomorrow) –100,000 people will fall ill until the peak of the incidence rate if the health and quarantine system continues to function,
serious measures will be taken, there will be no serious increase in the number of cases in other countries.
This is the most minimalist statistical forecasting model that I saw (I do not have time, maybe something new has appeared)

16.01

It turned out there was a model similar to me. The minimum indicators of my and other models have already been overcome (SARS). If the epidemic fails, 100 thousand should be within 1-2 weeks.

Statistics: Problems with the study:


04.02

Due to the fact that the study of the most dangerous coronaviruses requires specially trained personnel working in laboratory conditions of biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) or 4,
there are big problems in the study of this virus, and only limited data are available on the survival of the coronavirus and the response to stressful environmental factors.

Regular snapshots of the COVID-19 virus (formerly 2019-nCoV) published at the Rocky Mountains lab at the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Hamilton, Montana, are published.
Images taken from an electron microscope. 1
The department conducts research on dangerous pathogens like pathogens of Ebola, tularemia, Q fever and others. Biosafety level — IV category (maximum).
In the USA there are about 15 facilities where there is such a level of biosafety.

World Health Organization Advisor Ira Longini has created another model.
according to the model, each infected person under normal conditions infects another 2 or 3 people.

Even if we halve the rate, a third of the world's inhabitants will be infected with the virus, Longini said.
who also heads the Center for Infectious Disease Statistics at the University of Florida. 1

My opinion: I can say that uniformity of infection is almost impossible. There are situations with a positive opportunity for the virus to spread, and vice versa.
«Positive» situations are much less than negative. Therefore, all these models can do little.

Statistics: Forecasting Controversy


16.02: Section moved: follow the link

Analysis of Probable Influencing Factors: Getting Started

Summary:State Response Stages and Forecasts


26.01-28.01

Unfortunately, too much time was allowed between government decisions, as is usually the case.
However, in other countries, a partially authoritarian model would probably be worse; everyone will only know when it reaches a certain stage of danger.

26.01-28.01

After the threat was acknowledged, the government’s overall response level was quite high, however, it was expected that there would still be punctures for people, for example, the same video of dead people lying with the living.
16.02.Прим

However, they say that these videos are from 2003 (SARS Epidemic). Therefore, the quality of the shooting is not very high.
16.02TODO:

In democratic models, timely response to a situation is called into question.
The slow response of the authorities of any country is almost an axiom.
Closing millions of cities a couple of days after the discovery of the disease is fantastic.
According to the correlative model (danger — what needs to be done) of a state’s response, this will only happen if the danger is recognized.
In other cases, the response will be at least a week later with significant danger.
Nobody will lose money at city closures to a certain level of danger. This is the main truth about the relative model of response.
Thus, the reaction time of the authorities and the closure of cities with a million people can be called very good. Nobody has yet covered the cities of millionaires.
If 8 doctors together Li Wenliang achieved success, we could talk about an almost perfect response.
In the image below, I present the differences between response protocols and hazards including lag due to the incubation period.
The difference between a real response protocol (commensurate with the situation) and a hard response protocol.
image
Map of the spread of a typical virus

Protection Features: Treatment Methods (Copy))


27.01-01.02TODO: Добавить методы лечения

There are methods that can alleviate the most dangerous symptoms of the virus:
It is now known that as a temporary measure to reduce the symptoms of coronavirus, Chinese patients are treated with two HIV drugs — a combination of lopinavir and ritonavir, writes Bloomberg. No effective antiviral drugs against the virus exist today.
Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (EXMO) — oxygen saturation of the blood makes it possible to survive the most dangerous symptoms.

01/22/01/02

The use of various types of inhibitors.

For example, Favipiravir is a synthetic antiviral drug that was developed back in 1998 in Japan (Toyama Chemical / Fuji Film). The drug is active against RNA viruses and was used in Japan in 2014 to stop the flu epidemic.
So the drug is not new at all and will not be a salvation for everyone. At best, there will be a weakening of symptoms for those already infected. So there’s no point in buying such drugs healthy.

According to Reuters, chloroquin phosphate, which is intended for use against malaria, has also been shown to be effective in inhibiting a new coronavirus infection.
That is, the drug is intended to suppress the performance of the virus. Such drugs are not a panacea. Such (mainly inhibitors) drugs are at least 50-100 pieces.

2019-nCoV; RdRp influenza Favipiravir Inhibits RdRp • Approved for influenza in Japan • Randomized trial for 2019-nCoV (ChiCTR2000029544, ChiCTR2000029600)
2019-nCoV, MERS, SARS, RSV, HCV RdRp Ribavirin Inhibits the synthesis of viral RNAi mRNA • Approved for HCV and RSV • Randomized trial for 2019 nCoV in (ChiCTR2000029387). • Randomized ARVI test
2019-nCoV RdRp Penciclovir Inhibits RdRp Approved for HSV
2019-nCoV, MERS, SARS RdRp Remdesivir (GS-5734) • Stage 3 for 2019 nKoV (NCT04252664, NCT04257656) • Stage 1 for Ebola (NCT03719586)
and 65 more… Read more: https://www.nature.com/magazine-assets/d41573-020-00016-0/17663286

Protection Features: Vaccines (Copy)


27.01-01.02

Now scientists are testing, including previously manufactured vaccines, for other coronaviruses at 2019-nCoV, as just announced
Xu Wenbo, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Another scientist is trying to enter the country and test samples. Success can make a difference. Otherwise, it will take a very long time to wait for the vaccine, up to several years.
The US and Russia are already developing the first vaccine options. A certain result is possible in a few months. Research and development are ongoing for MERS-CoV.

Summary: Hazard Assessment


Unfortunately, due to the large incubation period and possible mutations, various changes are still possible, the relatively small number of deaths can be misleading.
Many hint at low mortality compared to conventional SARS, but not only mortality can make it dangerous, but also the high possibility of mutations, a large incubation period, high infectivity and possible cross-species infection of creatures, the possibility of «silent» spread, and other factors that may change the overall situation.

Summary: Possible origin: Virus transmission routes: (Copy)


04.02

here is information about the high infectivity of the virus during the incubation period. This was stated at a press conference in Beijing by the Head of the State Committee for Healthcare of the People's Republic of China, Ma Jiaovei.
Some experts do not believe about the contagiousness of the virus during the incubation period.
“I seriously doubt that Chinese government officials have any evidence to support this claim. I don’t know any evidence that over 17 years of work with SARS and MERS coronaviruses (they often compare the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV with them — ed.), It was discovered that someone got infected during the incubation period, ”said Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Research and Policy on Infectious Diseases at the University of Minnesota.

Summary: Possible origin: Interspecific distribution


26.01-28.01

With a high probability, the new virus is not so scary compared to SARS (due to greater mortality) and especially hCoV-EMC (due to cross-species reproduction of the virus).
I consider the latter to be the most dangerous, due to the unspecified type of receptors through which the virus is transmitted, which may be an omen of the emergence of a new cross-type virus,
transmitted from animals to humans, and humans to animals without restriction.

Summary: Hazard assessment: Interspecific distribution


26.01-28.01

The mortality rate of this 2019-nCoV is not so high, and only certain age groups have a high probability of dying.
16.02

However, there is a chance that even relatively young people will die, for example, the death of Li Wenliang.

Summary: Hazard Assessment: Health System Limits


26.01-28.01

However, the health care system has its limits. With a significant increase in the number of infected, there will be a large deterioration in the quality of treatment. And it is confirmed. International assistance is needed in this matter.
According to press reports, now in Wuhan, there are not enough doctors or tests for the virus. Patients spend hours in queues waiting for admission, and rapid tests are carried out only for those who have the most pronounced symptoms: temperature, cough, shortness of breath.

Summary:Risk assessment: The duration and the «tails»


26.01-28.01

Unfortunately, the average duration of the disease and its severity is quite high. So it is still not over soon.

Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor


26.01-28.01

It turns out that the factor of the new year can even help: the population has enough money in their hands to pay for food…
for several months without going to work.
Of course, some people have moved, but earlier.

Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 2 (Copy


26.01-28.01

In addition, about five million residents left Wuhan before the city was closed due to the epidemic of the new coronavirus, the South China Morning Post reports, which is quite possible given the time lag.
Thus, it was not possible to stop the spread of the virus using the usual virus response protocol. Only responding to more stringent protocols is unlikely due to unwillingness to spread panic, substitute power, be deceived if the result is not confirmed, etc.
The factor of the new year, in addition to increasing travel, also has a good side: Many people have enough money to live for several months.

Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 3 (Copy)


26.01-28.01


Summary: Predictive Models


26.01-28.01

Above are various predictive models and their numbers.

Vaccine Development Probability


26.01-28.01TODO: Добавитть из списка новостей

If a positive result is achieved: success in testing earlier vaccines,
everything can be accelerated if the authorities allow them to be used without very long testing.

Vaccine Development Probability 1


26.01-28.01TODO: Добавитть из списка новостей

Regarding the hype: People stock up on masks. Even a medical article talks about this problem with a possible shortage of masks for doctors,
in the US, doctors have contacted suppliers and are monitoring the situation. Reserves of masks may not be long enough.
However, the release of masks is very large. In the end, the situation should bounce back.

Summary:Hazard assessment: The impact of the lag on statistics. Effect of incubation period:


16.02 TODO: Создать статью

Указать на неоднородность передачи вируса. От 2 до 14 дней.
Указать на схожесть графика передачи вируса на древоподобное представление либо паутину.
Указать на «хвосты» начиная от лага заражения и заканчивая лагом выписки или смерти через много дней после. Все это будеи еще долго растягивать продолжительность вспышки.
Указать на минималный строк вспышки с учетом «хвостов» даже если никто уже не заболеет будет еще не менее несколько недель до несколько месяцев.

Summary: The effect of the incubation period


26.01-28.01

Unfortunately, the virus has a large incubation period, which means that the current disease and mortality rates reflect only the number of diseases at the beginning. That is, we now observe only the first group of patients, which appeared at the beginning. Thus, it makes no sense to blame the authorities for the impossibility of stopping the disease. The influence of the current restrictions made by the government will be, for example, to reduce the growth of the exponential growth of the virus in a few weeks or at best to reduce the growth of the infected!
Therefore, the statement by epidemiologists that the results will be visible only after weeks or months is correct.

Outcomes: Impact of the incubation period: Assumption of going beyond the SARS level


26.01-28.01

In addition, the current number of people infected with the first stage may indicate a possible excess of 2003 indicators.
I hope that the curve of increasing the spread of the virus to the peak of the spread of the infection will be o (n) or no more than (n log n).
16.02

So it happened. The number of cases has long gone beyond SARS.

Summary: The effect of the window until the authorities reac


26.01-28.01TODO

The disease had a large gap, where there were no restrictions. Now we are witnessing a situation of an increase in the number of cases during that period.
We will see the impact of measures taken by the government later. The same is with preparation and the usual response to the disease. As a result, being late in any case will be sufficient for the spread of the disease.

Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 2 (Copy)


26.01-28.01

In addition, about five million residents left Wuhan before the city was closed due to the epidemic of the new coronavirus, the South China Morning Post reports, which is quite possible given the time lag.
Thus, it was not possible to stop the spread of the virus using the usual virus response protocol. Only responding to more stringent protocols is unlikely due to unwillingness to spread panic, substitute power, be deceived if the result is not confirmed, etc.
The factor of the new year, in addition to increasing travel, also has a good side: Many people have enough money to live for several months.
The answer to why the authorities' reaction cannot completely extinguish the virus in the chapter: Summary: State response steps and forecasts

Typical misconceptions regarding the virus:


26.01-28.01

Many fakes appear on social networks regarding the virus, supposedly the virus spreads only among the Chinese. However, the first cases of infection of foreigners have already occurred, the first cases of transfer from a foreigner to a foreigner have occurred.
There are also many fakes that are too dramatic. Pointing to hundreds of thousands of infected, or even dead. Despite the relatively long period between the reaction of the authorities, at current rates it is quite difficult to achieve such impressive results.

Some people do not believe in the reality and danger of the virus, compares it with the flu.
The virus is dangerous due to the complex parameters that make this coronavirus dangerous. Starting from possible high infectiousness and ending with severe symptoms.
Some people really more easily pass the symptoms, there may be certain individual characteristics. Some people may actually get slightly infected. Not everyone may have complications in the form of pneumonia. Statistics on the likelihood of illness and mortality hint at this. Some healthy people have a chance to get sick without complications, but it’s better not to risk it. Unfortunately, there are still many blank spots in the study of the virus. However, this does not mean that the virus is a fiction.

Summary: Consequences


26.01-28.01

Highest probability: Substantial material cost to the country. The probability is very high. Danger: Significant damage to the country.
High probability: A new economic crisis. Financial markets are already reacting.
If the interspecific transmission of the virus is confirmed (which I want to ask for verification), the consequences may be worse. Danger: Increase. The probability is average.
If the virus mutates, the consequences can be very different until the effects increase significantly.
If the virus spreads to nearby India, the situation can become very difficult. .Danger: High. Probability: Average, only more than 30 thousand Indian students in the country…
The worst result could be panic. If the authorities cannot control the situation, or scare the population too much. Danger: Colossal. Probability: Very low.
With such a probability, if the population of a billionth country tries to break through the borders, then there will be favorable conditions for the spread of the virus.

A huge chance to infect Indian citizens, which can create the most dangerous migration in the world and part of the population will be sick.
Results: Various negative consequences are possible, up to a very dangerous migration of the infected population, the government may not hold back such massive cases…
I note the chance of individual survival for the population who tried to escape falls even lower than to remain in the current situation.
Unfortunately, it turned out that even technically advanced and powerful countries find it difficult to cope with the consequences alone, so I wanted other countries and organizations to more actively help in this and other cases in order to reduce the likelihood of panic and the worst-case scenario.

Summary: Forecasts and Reality


11.02-13.01

Chinese coronavirus: Hong Kong health experts have called for the adoption of «draconian» measures in the city, since researchers estimate that in Wuhan for 44 000 cases.

In the end, we can say that the minimum prognosis is no longer realistic. (More than 75,000 patients. 35,000 were predicted)
If there were no new cases, my prediction of up to one hundred thousand people would be real.
Due to new cases in the world, it is now likely to infect at least 100,000 people and up to 29,000 thousand.

Summary:Nesseary actions


01/26/28.01

The good news: The WHO IHR Emergency Committee will resume work on a new coronavirus in China to decide if the epidemic is a global emergency.

WHO declared the outbreak of coronavirus a global health emergency. The decision overturned the organization’s decision to postpone the declaration just a week ago.

The declaration does not have the force of law, but is a landmark example for everyone. The declaration of emergencies also adds urgency to any WHO appeal for money.

01/30/20120

The rapid spread of coronavirus caused massive cases of anti-Chinese sentiment. In Japan, the hashtag # ChineseD'tComeToJapan is popular on Twitter.
“Some of the xenophobia is probably due to wider political and economic tensions and concerns about China,

that interact with more recent fears of infection, ”said Christie Gowella, associate professor of Asian Studies at the University of Hawaii, Manoa.

There is a lot of information about the growing domestic contradictions, which is very dangerous.
Now we need to deal with panic. The situation with the loss of control by the authorities is the worst that can be.

Officials say that central China is dangerously short of medicines, despite the fact that the equipment is delivered in bulk from around the world.

The situation is testing the health system for durability. The photographs posted on the Internet show that hospital workers, many of whom are still in protective gear,
exhausted, they fell to their tables and to the floor.

Two of the Japanese citizens who were evacuated from Wuhan refused to get tested for coronavirus, Japanese social media users said
that travelers arriving in Tokyo on Wednesday put the country at risk.

01/26/28.01

Need material support from countries. You need to check the virus as well as hCoV-EMC, an interspecific check of virus transmission, which can provide additional information.

However, this scenario can be avoided by creating worldwide support for those infected, for example, in social networks, including from the states.

In this case, it is quite possible to defeat this outbreak of coronavirus.

Despite these reports, there are several important signs, most likely not taken into account, that could shed light on the characteristics of the virus.

For example: research is needed on the probability of virus survival in an environment outside the body, as well as studies on interspecific transmission of the virus as was done with hCoV-EMC.For example, research is needed on the probability of virus survival in an environment outside the body, as well as studies on the interspecific transmission of the virus as was done with hCoV-EMC.

Analysis of Probable Influences: The Beginning



Initial phase: Response: Medics reaction


In January 2020, a consortium of Chinese medical specialists was tasked with investigating the occurrence of the so-called Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan pneumonia.
On January 24, 2020, the report was published in The Lancet. The investigation was marked off. The first patient, who was subsequently diagnosed with coronavirus, developed symptoms on December 12, 2019.
A previous case of a patient was discovered who had symptoms since December 1, 2019, indicating an even earlier origin of coronavirus.

Analysis of Probable Influencing Factors: Initial Phase



Initial phase: Response: Medics reaction, 2


The number was already infected on the 30th. Dr. Wenliang, an ophthalmologist from Wuhan, tried to warn Wechat in his account.
One day before the official reaction, a group of doctors could warn of an outbreak. Thus the influence of «whistleblowers».
At the same time, authorities did not allow widespread dissemination of information in China until January 3 1
Then, Li Wenlyan’s information said that a group of seven patients was unsuccessfully treated for symptoms of pneumonia, the virus did not respond to traditional treatment.
Later that day, the medical department of the Wuhan Municipal Health Committee issued an «emergency statement for the treatment of pneumonia of unknown origin»

Initial phase: Response: Reaction of authorities and organizations


December 31, such a report was created, then it was supplemented: 1
December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, Hubei Province, China, reported
a group of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology, with a commonly reported link to the Wuhan seafood market.
In some cases, visits to another food market were reported, while others did not report any relationship with the markets,
but have been in contact with people with respiratory symptoms.
On December 31, 27 cases were reported, thus. Most likely, the basis for distribution was already formed then. Thus, we practically missed the initial stage of infection.
I did not find information in public sources.
On December 31, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan immediately stepped up arrival control processes.
1st numbers the fish market has already closed.

Initial phase: Response: Media respons


The first chronology was created on the Worcestershake of Vorutgale already on the 31st! <a href=«https://pt.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cronologia_do_surto_do_novo_coronavírus_2019-nCoV> 1
Many thanks to them, thanks to them I got more information for analysis.

Analysis of Probable Influencing Factors: Initial Phase: Assumptions



Initial phase: Probability: Assumption: The probability of an outbreak starting earlier


Assumption Probability || Forecast criticality
The disease started many days earlier from ~ 20.11 to 30.11
90% (Very High) || Significant

Given the onset of symptoms in probably one of the first patients on December 1, 2019, and given the probable term for the development of symptoms.
Possible influence of factors:
Assumption Probability || Forecast criticality
Lag before the onset of symptoms (slight asymptomatic period).
70% (High) || Slightly.
Slightly increases or decreases the period
Lag before the onset of symptoms similar to the common cold.
80% (Very High) || Slightly.
Perception of the onset of symptoms in a patient. (May be lag)
80% (Medium) || Slightly.
The stage of diagnosing symptoms and the actual onset of symptoms.
10% (Low) || Slightly.
Incorrect patient testimony / Error in providing information
15% (Low) || Slightly.
The serial number of the specified patient in the chronology of virus transmission.
50% (Very High) || Large.


Initial phase: Probability: Proposition No. 1: Total


We have a significant chance of a start. The „window of opportunity“ for the spread of the virus can be much larger.
Due to the large lag of the incubation period, the number of patients in the first period most likely affected the second.
However, the size of the „window“ still surprises me.

Initial phase: Probability: Proposition No. 1: The main factors influencing statistics


At the first stage, many parameters have a greater level of criticality.
The course of the development of the disease in the initial stages can significantly change
Assumption Probability || Forecast criticality
Factor of the presence of „strong“ individuals to the original (base) group
50% (High) || Critical.
More lethality | Less survival
The survival factor of “weak” individuals with greater infectivity
55% (High) || Critical.
The survival factor of „strong“ individuals with greater infectivity
30% (Medium) || Critical.
Factor of reducing the number of “strong” individuals with death of carriers
65% (High) || Critical.
The factor of the number of ineffective individuals at the beginning
50% (High) || Critical.
Patient death factor before being able to infect in the base group
07% (Low) || Critical.
Patient death factor before being able to infect in the base group
10% (Low) || Critical.
Limited susceptibility of the virus
50% (High) || Critical.
Vulnerability Factor for Different Populations
50% (High) || Critical.
Limited virus transmission mechanisms, bottlenecks.
60% (High) || Critical.
The factor of preservation of infectiousness is a little painful at first
50% (High) || Critical.
Antibody formation factor, the possibility of getting sick again
10% (Low) || Critical.
Factor of decline in co-religiosity, taking into account factors
10% (Low) || Critical.
Limited transmission of the virus
99% (High) || Slightly.
Limited sneezing virus transmission range…
99% (High) || Slightly.
Influence factor of virus survival on the surface of the skin including the skin
25% (High) || Critical.


Internal Factors: Reaction Probability Factors


The probability factor of the government’s reactions at the first stage
10% (Low) || Critical.
The probability factor of citizens' reactions at the first stage
10% (Low) || Critical.
Only the most advanced
Stage 1 probability of information dissemination
30% (Low) || Critical.
Probability factor for authorities' reactions: Type of reaction: Hide
80% (Low) || Critical.
Authority probability factor: Type of reaction: Report
20% (Low) || Critical.
Probability factor for authorities' reactions: Type of reaction: Report, no panic
30% (Low) || Critical.
Probability factor for authorities' reactions: Type of reaction: Quarantine
07% (Low) || Critical.
Authority probability factor: Type of reaction: Country shutdown
001% (Low) || Critical.


Internal Factors: Symptoms


Lag before the onset of symptoms (slight asymptomatic period).
70% (High) || Medium.
Slightly increases or decreases the period
Lag before the onset of symptoms similar to the common cold.
80% (Very High) || Medium.
Perception of the onset of symptoms in a patient. (There may be a lag)
80% (Medium) || Medium.
The stage of diagnosing symptoms and the actual onset of symptoms.
20% (Low) || Medium.
According to the protocol, they should interview the victim
Probability of fraud to the sick
07% (Low) || Slightly.


Internal factors of the statistical system


Incorrect statistics collection methodology
15% (Low) || Critical.
Creating a lag in statistics: Late registration of patients
15% (Low) || Critical.
Incorrect patient testimony / Error in providing information
15% (Low) || Critical.
Influence of congestion / panic factors on statistics errors
07% (Low) || Slightly.
There should not be a panic at first, congestion may be partial


Internal factors associated with common indicators


Limited territory, territory size, population of the territory
99% (High) || Critical.
Note: This was a great opportunity for the virus.
Demographic composition, percent of vulnerable groups
99% (High) || Critical.
Factor of influence of the distribution location on the category of population
55% (High) || Critical.
Note: A significant portion of the older population went to the market and did not order, for example online.
Influence of circle of acquaintances on virus transmission
55% (High) || Critical.


External factors associated with common indicators


Availability of airports, flow of airports
50% (High) || Critical.
Availability of flights during the first period
50% (High) || Critical.
The number of foreigners working and studying
50% (High) || Critical.
The period coincides with the typical migration
50% (High) || Critical. Note: Students go home
Factor of influence of the distribution location on porting to other countries
55% (High) || Significant.
Note The probability of those who went to the market to fly less than those who goes to a business conference


Internal factors associated with the virus disseminators


Limited contactees
99% (High) || Critical.
Factor of the influence of habits on the transmission of the virus carrier virus
45% (High) || Significantly.
Note: Walking in a crowded place
The influence of random encounters on virus transmission
15% (Low) || Significantly.
Note: I met a person by accident

Factor of the effect of subject mobility on virus transmission
60% (High) || Significantly.
Note: Especially if on foot or by public transport

Influence factor for public transportation
55% (High) || Slightly.
The influence factor of having a personal car — (city transport)
55% (High) || Slightly.
Note Usually cars give a lot of isolation


External factors associated with the virus disseminators


The factor of the patient’s movement at the 1st stage to other countries
25% (Low) || Significantly.
Influence factor residence time / number of contacts (case | intended)
25% (Low) || Significant.
Affiliation Factor
35% (Average) || Significant.


Internal factors associated with the control system


Space availability factor for growth number of patients
70% (Low) || Critical.
Factor of the width of the space for growth the number of patients
70% (Low) || Critical.
Note, for example, a place of a crowd of people
Infection control compliance factor
35% (High) || Critical.
Note: In the early stages, the response usually does not work out
Compliance with disinfection and level of protection
35% (High) || Critical.
Note Influences the inclusion factor on the distribution factor through objects
Factor of transmission of the virus from the surface
25% (Medium) || Significant.
Note Considering the likelihood of infecting this way
Compliance with disinfection and level of protection
35% (High) || Critical.
Note Previously, ~ 1700 doctors fell ill. Most of the doctors in the photo I saw regular gauze dressings and not FPP3 respirators
Level of preparedness for the situation
45% (High) || Critical.
Note: It is very difficult to be prepared for such cases
Awareness level
45% (High) || Critical.
Note At the initial levels, it is usually not high
The level of public awareness
15% (High) || Significantly </ оblockquote> Note At the initial levels it is usually not high


Summary: Key factors


21.02


First primary factor: Severity


The first major factor can be considered the severity of the disease. On the one hand, an ideal virus should cause greater severity, but over time, allowing the virus to spread while patients are still alive and can move around.

Thus, severity affects patient mobility. It will be difficult for a patient in serious condition to infect many. The most negative scenario for the virus. The severity is too high, all patients died without being able to infect anyone.

More positive for the virus is low severity but high infectivity. However, in this case, he should not threaten peace.

Thus, an “ideal virus” needs to be “delayed increase in severity”. In this case, you can infect a lot of people (Mobility will be sufficient), and then they will die.
So our coronavirus is really „very advanced“ in this direction. Very close to the perfect virus. If the severity was a little higher and modern means did not allow saving people, we could talk about incredible danger.

The average number of infected from 1 patient (R0) from 1.2 to 3.0. This can be compared with figures in the initial periods of SARS, H1N1 infections. Usually, R0 decreases with time. It is also affected by the survival of more aggressive forms of the virus and disease control measures. Some viruses can degenerate into less dangerous, but less dangerous can occur regularly.

The same SARS and MERS had higher mortality and did not have the expressed benefits of delayed symptoms. Epidemics quickly came to naught, despite a lower level of technology then.

Second primary factor: Infectiousness (Contagiousness)


21.02

The second main factor is infectiousness (This is a complex parameter): How many people can infect a person, what radius of the patient’s path is dangerous, what number of infection routes. how the protection methods influence infectiousness… Here the ratio is direct. The more infectious the worse for us.

Restrictions on the possibility of infection and the “target group” reduce the chances of the virus. The same SARS and MERS required long-term close contact and genetically determined susceptibility to the pathogen.
However, MERS seemed to circumvent these features and really could be transmitted without ACE2, fortunately lucky. However, MERS oddly enough has an attachment to the place.
Outbreaks are still ongoing (in 2019, 152 cases, 51 people died). Recently, Saudi Arabia seems to have reported a small outbreak, just before 2019nCOV.

In addition, the main focus of the disease has almost exhausted itself. The main factors are likely to be other foci. If there is a new “wide corridor” for distribution, the situation may continue.
In other cases, the epidemic will decline. Thus, other countries are in the focus of attention now.

The increase in the number of diseases in China continued and almost returned to normal +835 infected in China, having read + ~ 500 on the last day.
Disease growth in other countries has begun to affect overall statistics. Already registered 1076 cases of infection.
Given this, the situation will not be changed for a few more weeks.
New disease rates can jump every day, depending on the situation.

So there are 3-4 countries at risk. If everything goes well with them, the epidemic will be over.
The first country is Singapore (A man went to hospitals for a week until he was hospitalized), South Korea (A man went to church, infected parishioners), Japan (They say that quarantine is of insufficient quality), and also Thailand.
If the virus finds sufficient pathways to spread and there will be a fairly vulnerable population (or other criteria, see paragraph: criteria), you can expect a change in the situation.

Third main factor: Delayed action


The third major factor is the effect of the delayed effects of treatment and infection. Here the virus also has advantages. It’s hard to predict such hidden indicators.

Fourth main factor: mutability


The fourth major factor is mutability. Coronaviruses are more prone to this than part of other viruses. We will see.

Fifth major factor: incubation period


The fifth major factor is contagiousness during the incubation period and incomplete manifestation of symptoms, or partial manifestation.

Sixth main factor: Technical level of treatment


21.02

Sixth main factor: Technical level of treatment. We were lucky. If we encountered such a coronavirus in the 1920s, the situation would probably be repeated.
Due to the large number of factors, we cannot get a “clean script”. Many considered this the case on the ship, but this is not so. There the virus had its own characteristics.
They talk about ventilation and a large number of people from vulnerable groups. Thus, this option will not work either.

So it’s only partially possible to try to take a case on a ship as an example. An “ideal” test can only be testing under practically ideal conditions without modern treatment, which is absurd, of course.
We will save people and not try to find out the real mortality and spread of the virus.
Probably in a “perfect test” one could get the result and maybe it would be comparable to Spain.

But don’t worry, while the health care system is working and there are advanced treatments, this should not be repeated.
I hope you now understand how important the healthcare system and research are. Perhaps we have already partially crossed the limit of critical vulnerability to diseases of the level of Spain.
So I hope that in a country with poor quality of health care a similar case does not happen. In other cases, everything should be fine.

Seventh Core Factor: Distribution Capability Level


21.02

Seventh main factor: Level of distribution: This is affected by the means of movement, the number of people, the number of mass events, etc.
One of the most important elements can be typical places with vulnerable groups of the population.
One such place is the hospital and church markets. All places have almost been featured in statistics. For example, 155 people are already sick in Korea. Many patients were parishioners.

in hospitals, firstly, a sufficient number with chronic diseases, including a large number of other vulnerable groups. In churches, there is also a high probability of finding representatives of vulnerable groups.
Markets are a more traditional form of purchase for some population groups, unlike online orders and supermarkets.

In addition, a market like Wuhan served Yeshe and medical destinations. Many items in these markets are for traditional treatment.
Part of the population of China, the new middle class is already eating in restaurants, cafes, etc.
Thus, the market in Wuhan was a very favorable place as a base point for the spread of the virus: A large number of vulnerable populations, including treated with folk remedies.
About a large number of animals in such a market and conditions already mentioned above. Particular care must be taken to protect or suspend some of the vulnerabilities.

Postscript: I only state the facts and condemn any attempts at xenophobia for various reasons. As the head of WHO said: “This is a time for facts, not for fear. This is a time for science, not rumors. This is a time of solidarity, not a witch hunt ...”

image The influence of various factors on the statistics.
Isolated cases in the context of general statistics.

Decoding infographic:
If you want to count cases, you need to understand that we are trying to translate three-dimensional multi-threaded cases into statistics.
At the bottom are individual people and their movement graphs. This can be depicted as a tree from 1 person to another. Round indicators: these are the cases that fell into the border of an airborne or other effect. Depending on the form of severity (Until a person usually begins to feel bad), he will move, especially in the initial periods when there is no quarantine.

The different lengths of such contacts (length of the incubation period) and the length of the recovery period also affect the statistics.
Further, cases usually spread in certain places: For example, a ship (highlighted in squares). Each such place has its own characteristics. Part of places with a large concentration of vulnerable populations can lead to a difficult situation. Then territorially go disease zones all the way to countries.

Thus, I have already said that the market was almost an ideal place to start the coronavirus.

As a result, these small cases with each individual infected can greatly affect the statistics. A huge number of factors at the lower and higher levels affect the statistics. The main factors (More than a hundred) and the degree of their influence I have already written in the table above.

Summary: The Need for Global Valuation Systems


21.02

Thus, there are a huge number of factors that have their own characteristics. All this needs to be known in order to predict the spread of the virus. Otherwise, it is a fortune-telling on coffee grounds.
It is very important to create global forecasting systems trusted by many who really collected the big picture from incomplete and partially conflicting information.
19.02

As a result, we have a huge number of factors that need to be considered when calculating indicators. Data on several factors is almost impossible to get.
As a result, I am always skeptical about the calculation

Other links


Human Coronavirus EMC Does Not Require the SARS-Coronavirus Receptor and Maintains Broad Replicative Capability in Mammalian Cell Lines — — mBio, 11.12.2012, doi: 10.1128/​mBio.00515-12
Тяжёлый острый респираторный синдром
2019-nCoV
Infectiousness research
Opinion of the epidemiologist
www.medrxiv.org
china-coronavirus-hong- kong-medical-experts-call
Receptor binding domain as a target for the development of SARS vaccines.
WHO case report
WHO website
Essential drugs for treating the virus
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3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Up

Part of the links



Updated Charts for 2019-nCov



New News: (Changed)



. Link
RUSSIAN DOCTORS MEMES(TRANSLATED)
image

07.03
More than 100,000 cases in total have been noted. Already more than 100 countries according to my statistics.
Slovakia Peru and Cameroon, Vatican. Togo, Serbia
The Vatican recorded the first case. It is noted that a spokesman for Matteo Bruni said that they found out on Thursday, and therefore, outpatient services in Vatican clinics were suspended to disinfect areas.

The first death from coronavirus recorded in the UK in Berkshire

The first death from coronavirus recorded in the Netherlands

Ukraine:

In the Chernivtsi region from the reserve fund allocated 4 million UAH to prevent the spread of coronavirus in Bukovina.

French deputy Jean-Luco Reitzer fell ill with French, who had recently been hospitalized in intensive care with a severe form.

The first death in the country recorded in the Netherlands

In connection with the spread of coronavirus and the recommendations of the Ministry of Health on the rules for the prevention of the disease, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church said that the coronavirus should not be ill through the sacrament.
This was announced by Metropolitan Dmitry Rudyuk on a page on Facebook.

In Lviv, the place of observation was determined, where people who were in contact with infected people would be sent. This place is defined sanatorium „Nemirov“. Disinfection has been strengthened in the city and it is recommended to limit the holding of public events for an indefinite period.
Mass events due to the threat of coronavirus were canceled in Sumy.

In Khmelnitsky, coronavirus infection by a 44-year-old priest who returned from Greece was not confirmed. 9 Ukrainians are checking for coronavirus.
The circle of persons with whom they contacted on the territory of the Russian Federation was determined. Now work is underway to place them under medical supervision for examination.

Russia:
In Moscow over the past day, five more cases of coronavirus were recorded, another case was recorded in Nizhny Novgorod, the virus’s operational headquarters said in a statement.
As a result, according to my statistics, there are already up to 14 cases.

The organizers of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum decided to cancel the event, scheduled for June 3-6, due to the threat of the spread of coronavirus. The forum has been held since 1997, recently it was visited by about 10 thousand people a year, including high-ranking politicians from different countries.

Meanwhile, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced a list of measures designed to stop the spread.
The responsibility to monitor the state of employees of the authorities rests with employers. “Employers are required to measure the temperature of all employees and remove those whose temperature is elevated,” the list of measures says.
However, the text of the decree does not explain what responsibility will be incurred by citizens and employers who do not comply with the requirements of the directive, and whether people who have returned from the foci of infection before publication of the document are required to comply with it.

Russia will ban Iranian citizens from March 7.
Moscow has prepared a plan for the fight against coronavirus: plan „B“ provides for quarantine

Russia per day registered six new patients with coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. One case was registered in Nizhny Novgorod, five in Moscow.
It is reported by Interfax with reference to the operational headquarters. All patients have recently visited Italy. People were hospitalized, they are in special infectious boxes.
“We have good information. Our first patient recovered, he has already confirmed several times that he had no infection, we will write him out in the coming days,” said Anastasia Rakova, deputy mayor of Moscow on social development issues.

Poland:
Four new cases of COVID-19 virus infection have been confirmed in Poland. Source: Minister of Health Lukash Shumovsky, Ukrinform reports
Coronavirus: Poland has banned the export of certain medicines and remedies.

»We have banned the export of drugs from Poland that may be useful in the fight against coronavirus," said Janusz Cieszinski, deputy minister of health.

Ship:
The coronavirus COVID-19 was found in 19 crew members and two passengers of the Grand Princess cruise ship off the coast of the United States,

Other:
In Britain, a coronavirus was found in employees of British Airways. «Public Health England confirmed that two members of our staff tested positive for COVID-19,» the company said.

Coronavirus: 11 thousand masks were stolen from a hospital in Paris. Note I recall in Spain 6 thousand masks were stolen. And even earlier in China.


Potrebuyutsya znachitel'nyye usiliya mirovykh pravitel'stv, chtoby sderzhat' global'nuyu vspyshku koronavirusnoy infektsii COVID-19, tak kak nyneshnyaya situatsiya — «eto ne trenirovka», a realii (gendir VOZ Tedros Gebreisus).

Ispolnitel'nyy direktor programmy(VOZ) po chrezvychaynym situatsiyam v oblasti zdravookhraneniya Maykl Rayan vyskazalsya o srokakh ischeznoveniya koronavirusa na brifinge dlya SMI. Zapis' translyatsii dostupna na stranitse VOZ v Twitter.
«Yesli koronavirus ischeznet letom, to eto stanet podarkom sud'by, no rasschityvat' na etot stsenariy ne stoit», — zayavil Rayan.






Significant efforts by world governments will be required to curb the global outbreak of COVID-19 coronavirus infection, as the current situation is “not training,” but realities (WHO gender Gender Tedros Gebreisus).

Michael Ryan, Executive Director of the Health Emergencies Program (WHO), spoke about the timing of the disappearance of coronavirus at a media briefing. The broadcast recording is available on the WHO Twitter page.
“If the coronavirus disappears in the summer, it will be a gift of fate, but you should not count on this scenario,” Ryan said.




“Coronavirus is the black swan of 2020,” Sequoia Capital analysts begin. Three main problems due to coronavirus were noted there:

The Eurovision Song Contest can take place without spectators, said the Netherlands Broadcasting Organization, one of its organizers.

Two football matches of Eurocups will take place without spectators: “Valencia” — “Atalanta” (1/8 Champions League) and “Inter” Milan — “Getafe” (1/8 LE). Tells BBC News.

A resident of Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, was hospitalized on March 5 on suspicion of a Chinese coronavirus. At checkpoints of entry and exit from the temporarily occupied territories, from 07:00 on March 7, temporary restrictions on their crossing are introduced.

Oleg Voloshin, a deputy of the OPZZh faction, met at the end of February with the French deputy Jean-Luc Reitzer, who had recently been hospitalized in intensive care with a severe form of COVID-19.

In Sumy, mass events were limited in order to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection in the city.

Today, March 6, the United States Aerospace Agency is conducting an experiment: all employees who can work remotely work at home.

In the UK, scammers earned $ 1 million on coronavirus. Scammers have different schemes: from offers to sell protection against coronavirus to phishing attacks.

An Ecuadorian warship, with 50 people aboard, was quarantined after one crew member contacted the first infected person in the country (BBC News).

The British airline Flybe, which is Europe's largest regional airline, went bankrupt, despite attempts to support it.
Problems in the company began before the outbreak, but as a result, she could not cope with the decrease in passenger traffic associated with it.

The premiere of the 25th James Bond film was postponed to November.

In the UK, HSBC sent 100 people home from an entire floor of its head office in London when one of the employees was diagnosed with coronavirus.

In Seattle (USA), the Facebook office was closed — the coronavirus was detected by a freelance employee, he visited the office on February 21. The office is planning to open on March 9th.

After disinfecting hand gel disappeared from store shelves in Britain, the competition and market authorities warned that those who resell the protection at overpriced prices could face prosecution.

Palestinian authorities close the Basilica of the Nativity in Bethlehem and other churches and mosques. Hotel staff in a suburb of Bethlehem are checked after it was discovered by several tourists from Greece.

Iran establishes checkpoints to limit the movement of people between cities. The authorities also urged people to use paper money less. Schools and universities in Iran will remain closed until the beginning of April — this is the end of the school year in the country.

In Thailand, the Full Moon Part party was canceled, which attracts about 10 thousand tourists.

Miami authorities announced the cancellation of a major music festival Ultra, scheduled for March 20-22. The festival has a 21-year history, last year there were 170 thousand visitors.

South Korea extends day care throughout the country for another two weeks. On the same day, a new “special care area” was announced in Gyeongsang after a sharp increase in the number of cases.

Australia has banned travelers from coming from South Korea, as well as from mainland China and Iran. An expanded survey will be conducted on travelers arriving from Italy.

The Roman marathon, scheduled for March 29, was canceled.

The Paris marathon, scheduled for April 5, was postponed until October 2020.

Italy postpones the cycling race of Reman San Remo and Tirreno Adriatico.

Russia isolated 700 people in St. Petersburg, including many students, due to contact with an Italian student who was diagnosed the day before.

Lufthansa halves flights due to coronavirus



06
<blockquote class = "BurlyWood">
New cases in Bhutan, Costa Rica, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Palestine, South Africa. According to my statistics, there are already more than 100 countries.
It is reported that a 63-year-old man in the province of Suleimaniya died of coronavirus.
On March 4, 31 victims were recorded in mainland China
 </blockquote>

<blockquote class = "AntiqueWhite">
</blockquote>

<blockquote class = "CadetBlue">
I translated these scientific articles completely in the form of a separate article on Habré. These articles are very important for understanding the situation.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries

Aggressive measures in China have slowed down the coronavirus. Can you learn from it? Indication of online health status, the role of technology. 2 varieties of Covid.

Kai Kupfferschmidt, John Cohen March 2, 2020, 16:50 DOI: 10.1126 / science.abb5426

In Chinese hospitals crowded with patients with COVID-19 a few weeks ago, it is now empty. There are even difficulties with certain tests, including tests of experimental drugs
The number of new cases reported every day has plummeted over the past few weeks.

These are some of the startling observations published on February 28 in a mission report organized by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Chinese government that allowed 13 foreigners to join 12 Chinese scientists on a trip to five Chinese cities to study the state of the COVID-19 epidemic and the effectiveness of the response countries. The results surprised several of the visiting scientists. “I thought these numbers could never be real,” said epidemiologist Tim Ekmans of the Robert Koch Institute, who participated in the mission.

But the report is straightforward. “China’s bold approach to curbing the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly growing and deadly epidemic,” it says. "This reduction in the incidence of COVID-19 in China is real."

The question now is whether the world can learn from China's apparent success and whether the massive blockages and electronic surveillance measures introduced by the authoritarian government in other countries will work. “When you spend 20-30 years in this area, it sounds like this:“ Seriously, are you going to try to change that with this tactic? "Says Bruce Aylward, a Canadian epidemiologist who led an international group and informed reporters about its results in Beijing and Geneva last week. “Hundreds of thousands of people in China have not received COVID-19 because of this aggressive response.”

“This report poses complex questions for all countries that are currently considering their answers to COVID-19,” said Stephen Riley, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London. “The joint mission was very productive and provided unique information on China's efforts to prevent the spread of the virus in mainland China and around the world,” adds Lawrence Gostin, a health lawyer at Georgetown University. But Gostin warns against using the model elsewhere. “I think that countries have very good reasons to hesitate by applying such extreme measures.”

There is also uncertainty about what the virus, called SARS-CoV-2, will do in China after the country inevitably lifts some of its most stringent controls and restarts its economy. Cases of COVID-19 may increase again.

The report was written at a critical moment when many epidemiologists are thinking about the beginning of a global pandemic. Just last week, the number of affected countries increased from 29 to 61. Several countries found that they already had the virus spread in the community - unlike only among travelers from affected areas or people who were in direct contact with them. - and the number of reported cases is growing exponentially.

In China, the opposite has happened. On February 10, when the advance team of the WHO-China Joint Mission began work, China reported 2,478 new cases. Two weeks later, when foreign experts packed their bags, this number dropped to 409 cases. (Yesterday, China reported only 206 new cases, and in the rest of the world their number increased almost nine-fold.) According to the report, the epidemic in China peaked at the end of January.

Ambitious, agile and aggressive
The team began operations in Beijing, and then split into two groups, which were said to be in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chengdu and the most affected city of Wuhan. They visited hospitals, laboratories, companies, wet markets selling live animals, train stations and local government offices. “Wherever you go, whoever you talk to, you have a sense of responsibility and collective action, and there is warfare to get things done,” says Aylward.

The group also reviewed a dataset compiled by Chinese scientists. (The country still accounts for more than 90% of the total number of confirmed 90,000 cases.) They found that about 80% of infected people had mild or moderate illness, 13.8% had severe symptoms and 6.1% had episodes that threatened of life. respiratory failure, septic shock, or organ failure. The highest mortality rates are among people over 80 (21.9%) and people with heart disease, diabetes, or hypertension. Fever and dry cough were the most common symptoms. Surprisingly, only 4.8% of infected people had a runny nose. Children accounted for only 2.4% of cases, and almost no one was seriously ill. In mild and moderate cases, recovery took an average of 2 weeks.

Critically unknown is the incidence of a mild or asymptomatic disease. If a large number of infections are unaccounted for, this makes it difficult to isolate infectious people and slow down the spread of the virus. But on the other hand, if the virus causes few symptoms in many infected people, if any, the current estimated mortality rate is too high. (The report says that the indicator varies greatly: from 5.8% in Wuhan, whose health care system was overloaded, to 0.7% in other regions.)

To answer this question, the report notes that the so-called fever clinics in Guangdong examined approximately 320,000 people for COVID-19 and found that only 0.14% of them were positive. “It was really interesting because we hoped and might have expected to see a large number of mild and asymptomatic cases,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Health Safety Center. “These data indicate that this is not happening, which implies that the risk of death can be more or less the same as we currently have.” But Guangdong was not a heavily affected area, so it is unclear whether the same seizure is taking place in Hubei, which has suffered the most, Rivers warns.

Much of the report is about understanding how China has achieved what many public health experts considered impossible: containing the spread of the widespread respiratory virus. “China has launched perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive effort to contain disease in history,” the report said.

The most dramatic and controversial measure was blocking the city of Wuhan and nearby cities in Hubei Province, since January 23 at least 50 million people have been subjected to compulsory quarantine. This “effectively prevented the further export of infected people to the rest of the country,” the report concludes. In other regions of mainland China, people are voluntarily isolated and controlled by designated leaders in the districts.

Chinese authorities also built two specialized hospitals in Wuhan in just 1 week. Health workers from all over China were sent to the outbreak site. The government made an unprecedented attempt to trace the contacts of confirmed cases. In Wuhan alone, more than 1800 teams of five or more people tracked tens of thousands of contacts.

Aggressive “social distancing” measures across the country included the abolition of sporting events and the closure of theaters. Schools extended the breaks that began in mid-January on Lunar New Year. Many enterprises have closed stores. Anyone who went outside had to wear a mask.

Two widely used mobile phone apps, AliPay and WeChat, which have replaced cash in China in recent years, have helped enforce restrictions because they allow the government to track people’s movements and even prevent people with confirmed infections from traveling. “Each person has a kind of traffic light system (note why the traffic light is lower),” says Mission Member Gabriel Lun, Dean of the School of Medicine Lee Ka Shing at the University of Hong Kong. Color codes on mobile phones in which green, yellow or red indicate the state of human health (approx. Part of the data due to their personal indication by the person or in the context of messages, etc.), allow security guards at stations and other checkpoints to know who to miss.

“As a result of all these measures, social life is greatly reduced,” the report says. But the measures worked. After all, infected people are less likely to spread the virus to anyone other than members of the household, says Lung. As soon as all the people in the apartment or house were infected, the virus has nowhere else to look for the distribution channel, and the transmission chain stopped. “That's how the epidemic really got under control,” says Lun. In general, according to him, there was a combination of “the good old social distance and quarantine, which was very efficiently implemented due to the fact that there is a mechanism at the local level at the level of neighbors, which is facilitated by big data from AI [neural networks].”

Deep commitment to collective action
How real is the impact of these tough measures in other countries is controversial. “China is unique in that it has a political system that can achieve public compliance with extreme measures,” Gostin says. “But his use of social control and intrusive surveillance is not a good model for other countries.” The country also has the exceptional ability to quickly complete time-consuming and large-scale projects, says Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development: "No one in the world can do what China has just done."

They shouldn't, said lawyer Alexandra Phelan, a China specialist at the Georgetown Center for Global Health and Safety Sciences. “Is this not the only measure of whether something is a good way to control public health,” says Phelan. “There are many things that will help stop the outbreak, which we consider abhorrent in a fair and free society.”

The report mentions some areas in which China needs to be improved, including the need to “more clearly convey key data and events internationally.” But this is mom on the coercive nature of his control measures and the loss that they exacted. “The only thing that is completely disguised is the whole aspect of human rights,” said Devi Sridhar, a global public health expert at Edinburgh University. Instead, the report notes "the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat."

“To me, as a person who spent a lot of time in China, it seems incredibly naive - and if not naive, then deliberately blind to some of the approaches used,” says Phelan. Singapore and Hong Kong may be the best role models, says Konyndyk: “There was the same level of rigor and discipline, but it was applied in a much less draconian way.”

The report does not mention other flaws in the Chinese strategy, said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University, who wonders what effect she had on, say, cancer treatment or HIV patients. “I think that when evaluating the impact of these approaches, it’s important to consider secondary, tertiary consequences,” says Nuzzo.

And even China's tremendous efforts, perhaps, can only temporarily slow down the epidemic. “There is no doubt that they suppressed the outbreak,” said Mike Osterholm, head of the Center for Research and Policy on Infectious Diseases at the University of Minnesota, Twin City. “It is like suppressing a forest fire, but not putting it out. Howling right now. But it can also teach the world new lessons, says Riley. “Now we have the opportunity to see how China will cope with the possible revival of COVID-19,” he says.

Ailward stresses that China’s success today should inspire confidence in other countries that it can affect the extent to which COVID-19 is distributed. “We get new messages every day about new outbreaks in new areas, and people feel like,“ Oh, we can’t do anything, ”and people argue whether this is a pandemic or not,” says Aylward. “That's a pity. There are really practical things you can do to be prepared to respond to this, and that is where you need to focus.”

Note: I do not support social ratings, but it’s clear that the idea of ​​marking the state of health through social networks and gadgets is very robust.

Addition 1:
China introduced an application that allows residents to assess the risk of coronavirus infection. The application determines whether the user has been near the person who has been diagnosed with coronavirus for the last two weeks and whether he has symptoms of the disease. You can download the application, a QR code, then the user must register using a mobile number and pass verification, indicating full name and ID number. A maximum of three people can register for one phone number in the application - they must also indicate their names and data documents.

"In China and other Asian countries, data obtained using face recognition technology is not considered something that should be kept secret. It is something that can be used. Of course, provided that it is done in a transparent way, and for their use , where necessary, consent has been obtained, "says Caroline Bigg, a lawyer from the Hong Kong office of DLA Piper International Law Firm.

Addition 2:

Researchers in China say preliminary studies show that COVID-19 mutates, and now there are at least two types of virus.

One of them, a more aggressive strain, infected 70% of respondents, a less aggressive strain was associated with the rest, according to doctors from the School of Life Sciences at Peking University and the Shanghai Pasteur Institute.

Scientists have dubbed the aggressive type L strain and the less common type S strain. The L-type strain was more common in Wuhan, where the outbreak began, but researchers note that the frequency of infection has decreased. They also cautioned that the data that they had available for the study was “very limited,” and much more research was needed to understand the evolution of COVID-19.

“While the L type was more common in the early stages of the Wuhan outbreak, the L type decreased after the beginning of January 2020,” they wrote. “Human intervention could have exerted stronger selective pressure on type L, which can be more aggressive and spread faster.”

Researchers say that different strains were probably caused by a mutation in the hereditary version of the virus. And that may mean that more is coming. They called on the scientific community to come together to fight and contain the outbreak.

“These data convincingly confirm the urgent need for further immediate comprehensive research that combines genomic data, epidemiological data, and cartographic records of clinical symptoms of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19),” they wrote.

Note I am certainly surprised by the result. Apparently the incubation period was enough for an aggressive strain. Thus, the degradation of the virus did not occur.
https://fortune.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-mutating-second-strain-covid-19-wuhan-china/

The results.
Thus, we can ascertain the likely effect of measures and technologies on the spread of coronavirus. I note: cases of infection have already been brought to China. Some of the Chinese came from Germany and Iran. So, as I said in the main article and in the commentary, the coronavirus is with us for a long time.

</blockquote>

<blockquote class = "Cornsilk">
China will help countries affected by coronavirus

Ukraine:
In the Chernivtsi region, quarantine is introduced in kindergartens, schools and universities. "We will prohibit the holding of mass events, conferences, sporting events. We will temporarily close schools - there will be a break in educational processes in order to limit the crowding of people," said chief medical doctor Viktor Lyashko .

Vladimir Zelensky invited Ukrainian Anastasia Zinchenko to return home and leave the dog at the embassy.
China does not allow the removal of animals from its territory (Ukrinform). She refused to evacuate from Wuhan in February because of a dog,

Today, the observation ends in Novy Sanzhary (press service of the National Guard).
Vladimir Zelensky arrived at the medical center of the National Guard in Novy Sanzhary. He said parting words and gave one of them a watch in honor of his birthday

Belarus:
In Belarus, spam with misinformation about coronavirus caused criminal cases under the article “Unauthorized access to computer information” initiated by the Investigative Committee of Belarus
The e-mails of the Republican Scientific Practical Center for Pulmonology and Phthisiology and the Minsk Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology were hacked. Then, on behalf of physicians, attackers began to send false information about the spread of coronavirus in Belarus. According to SK, all messages were prepared using social engineering techniques. After the recipients opened the letter, a script that launched the executable malicious file was automatically downloaded to the computer under the guise of a pdf file. The criminal investigation is ongoing.

When I search COCVID-19 on the Play Store and on play.google.com, they don’t get any results. So Google is holding back the spread of misinformation about this virus.

The US Congress will allocate $ 8.3 billion to combat the epidemic of coronavirus COVID-19.

In a Chinese city in Wuhan, a 36-year-old man died of respiratory failure five days after being discharged from a temporary hospital. It is reported by the South China Morning Post.
It is reported that Li Liang was first admitted to the hospital on February 12. Two weeks later he was discharged with instructions to remain in quarantine for 14 days.

All matches of the Italian Championship for a month will be held without spectators

Some have officially considered the leak of coronavirus from a Chinese laboratory.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the creation of a new cabinet committee because of the coronavirus.

The Malaysian state of Sarawak forbids entry for travelers to Italy, Iran, South Korea and China over the past 14 days.

Portuguese Parliament to discuss March 4 outbreak. Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa will launch a bi-weekly debate on “Preventing and containing the COVID-19 epidemic.”

Thailand advised travelers arriving from nine countries to independently quarantine and register their addresses: Singapore, China (+ Hong Kong and Macau), Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, France, Italy and Iran. The authorities subsequently clarified that quarantine is not mandatory until a list of high-risk countries is compiled.

Iraq has closed schools, universities, cinemas, cafes and other public places. Authorities have banned mass prayers, including on Fridays, until further notice.

The French cycling team Cofidis is quarantined in the UAE, which runs until March 14th. This happened after several employees tested positive for coronavirus, which led to the cancellation of the tour in the UAE.

The Tokyo government called on residents to refrain from participating in sakura parties in the parks.

Russia has banned the export of suits, masks and respirators with goggles from a list of 17 items so that physicians can access them to treat patients. The decree, which was published today, entered into force two days ago and expires on June 1. The ban does not apply to exports for humanitarian and personal purposes.

The Australian Football League moved the game between St. Kilda Saints and Port Adelaide Power, originally scheduled for May 31 at the Jiangwan Stadium in Shanghai, China, to the Docklands Stadium in Melbourne, Australia, which will be played on June 7.

Italy will close schools and universities by March 15 to contain the virus, and measures will be taken to combat the crowd. At the same time, it was possible to play in Serie A matches without spectators in an attempt to stop the virus.

Workers in the UK who isolate themselves will receive statutory sick leave payments from the first day they are not working.

Saudi Arabia temporarily suspended the pilgrimage to the city of Umrah for citizens and residents. Visiting a mosque in Medina is also prohibited.

Japan said the torch transfer for the 2020 Olympics could be done in such a way as to prevent the spread of the virus.

Malaysia has suspended all automatic and electronic gate systems at all virus checkpoints.

South Korea extends day quarantine throughout the country for another two weeks. On the same day, a new “special care area” was announced in Gyeongsang after a surge in the number of cases.

Australia has banned travelers from coming from South Korea, as well as from mainland China and Iran. An expanded survey will be conducted on travelers arriving from Italy.

Some thicken again:
“From 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected with coronavirus,” said Dr. Christian Drosten, a virologist professor at Charite Hospital in Berlin.
Note I assure you, infecting so many people is almost impossible with quarantine.
In the end, given the characteristics of the virus, it is already possible to ascertain the ability to quench the epidemic.
Most of the more aggressive stamina does not significantly increase the spread of the virus, people get symptoms faster than with a less aggressive variant.
Thus, the virus is easier to drown, but for each individual person the prevalence of aggressive stamina is worse.

Thus, even this indicates a much smaller number than with extrapolation. So these are the next scary forecasts. Actual numbers will be less by orders of magnitude, and will depend on specific decisions, actions of the population and much more. I do not understand why doctors scare the population. Yes, most likely it will go to hundreds of thousands in the world. Only if specifically not lucky are millions possible. It can already be stated: With quarantine in mass places, the coronavirus spreads slowly enough so that millions get sick. Yes, there is a long incubation period ... Everything will last a long or very long time. But significant jumps will only occur when large mass events are infected, cases in closed rooms, masturb panic and mass displacement of the population to large groups, etc. In other cases, like showing the experience of China, things are not so bad.
So don't go crazy over the news for now. Just get ready for a long time.
</blockquote>

05.03
With the news again bust. This is only part of the news.

Chile, Gibraltar, Argentina and Liechtenstein. Case in Poland.
Bad: up to 10 patients in India.
In just one day, 15 people died in Iran. Coronavirus found in the first vice president of Iran.
Cases of infection were recorded in almost all provinces of Iran, the office of the Iranian president said on Wednesday, March 4. There is no official confirmation of this information.
In the UK, the number of COVID-19 infections reached 85

The Grand Princess airliner was quarantined off the coast of California after a 71-year-old man who had gone ashore died of COVID-19. There were 3,000 people on board.


7 countries added to the quarantine list of China (Reuters). Singapore, Germany, France, Spain, Austria and Switzerland…

Ukraine:
In Chernivtsi, another 3 people (according to other sources 6) were suspected of entering the infectious department of the regional clinical hospital.
This is much less than for example in Poland.
According to ACC, patients felt unwell and turned to their family doctors
Note: A big problem may be the return of people from Poland and other countries to Ukraine.

A suspect coronavirus was hospitalized yesterday, March 3, in a student who came from Chernivtsi.

A passenger in a gas mask GP5 drove in the Kiev metro. A young man came in at Khreshchatyk station. In a gas mask, the young man felt free, tight protection on his face did not interfere with studying the contents of the smartphone.

“It is important to emphasize that, most likely, we will witness more cases of the disease in Ukraine. However, the essence lies in the readiness of Ukraine’s healthcare to counteract the outbreaks of this disease, ”said WHO spokesman Jarno Habicht Habicht at a briefing.
Note: I think it's too early to talk about this. If an infected person was driving a car and did everything necessary, specifically the first case, the risks are minimal.
There was information that the patient received a booklet with instructions at the Bulgarian airport and followed the instructions.

«If even one case of transmission within a country is recorded — a case that will not be related to traveling from a country where a case of coronavirus infection is recorded, we will immediately recommend that local authorities in the territory where this case will be recorded introduce restrictive anti-epidemic measures,» — declared Victor Lyashko.
It is impossible to isolate all those who contacted patients in medical facilities, and this is not necessary, said Deputy Minister of Health Viktor Lyashko.

Belarus:
Four cases of coronavirus recorded in Minsk are an Iranian student and three members of the family with whom he was in contact.
Almost 85% of BNTU students who had contact with an Iranian student and who are now being monitored in a hospital in Borovlyany have already been examined.

Naviny.by went around five pharmacies in the Academy of Sciences area. None of them had medical masks.

The pharmacy in the building of the Press House said that now the demand for masks is very large. “If there are a couple of pharmacies in the city, then masks are sold out there instantly. This has long been such a situation. Three weeks, ”the pharmacist said. According to her, manufacturers can not cope with demand.
Currently, 271 people are under quarantine surveillance.

A hotline on issues of coronavirus infection +375173343468 is also open for residents of Minsk.

Everyone who is in contact centers (places for quarantine) will be given a document of inoperability: students — certificates, and workers — sick leave.

And if I refuse hospitalization or placement in a contact center?
Answering the question whether quarantine can be abandoned if doctors suggest, the head of the main department of the organization of medical care and examination of the Ministry of Health Elena Bogdan said that «at the moment there were no cases of refusal to hospitalization.»
“We lucidly explain to people why (this must be done. — Naviny.by). There are people who themselves ask for these centers (contact centers — Naviny.by) when they come from abroad, and at home they have a small child or a pregnant wife. Observed, received negative smears and released home after 14 days. There were no situations to persuade. Everyone understands everything, ”said Elena Bogdan.

Poland:
“Today we received the results of the analyzes of the first patient who has confirmed coronavirus infection in Poland… He feels well,” said Minister of Health Lukasz умumowski at a press conference on Wednesday, March 4,

The patient returned to Poland from Germany and, with suspected coronavirus, ended up at the University Hospital in Krakow. The test results will be known on Monday or Tuesday. This is reported by the «European truth» with reference to RMF24.

Lukash Shumovsky added that everyone with whom the patient had contact was sent to quarantine. According to him, more than 500 people are currently in quarantine due to possible infection in the whole of Poland.

More recently, there were great doubts about the case, for example:
We now have a panic epidemic, not a coronavirus epidemic. The State Hygiene Administration has done over 400 tests. None of them pointed to coronavirus, ”said Wojciech Andrusiewicz, spokesman for the Polish Ministry of Health, on TVN.
However, today everything has become clear.

Moreover, the case is much more dangerous than in Ukraine. There are fewer contactees.

The advent of coronavirus in Europe coincided with the start of the presidential election campaign. Opposition and opponents of Andrzej Duda do not miss the opportunity to point out the flaws and cast doubt on government actions.

The Polish government has taken the issue of combating the spread of the disease seriously: messages from the Sanepid have been sent to mobile phones, a 24-hour information line has been launched, travelers from Italy are monitored for temperatures, and there is a ban on visits to Polish hospitals.

According to RMF FM, the Sejm is considering a draft law. If accepted, Polish firms will be able to officially leave their employees to work at home, parents will receive compensation when quarantines and schools are closed. The document also provides for additional financing for health care.

It is worth noting that there were no protective masks and respirators in Polish pharmacies last week. They have become the most popular product. According to the Ceneo online service, between February 23 and 28, demand for masks exceeded annual rates.

Every day, more than 50 thousand people look for masks from us. For comparison, the demand for anti-mask masks during exacerbation was ten times less. This trend is observed in all voivodships, the prices of some masks have increased tenfold, and on average there has been a rise in price by 100%, says Tomas Jankowski from the Ceneo portal.

People have already started buying long-term foodstuffs. “Generally in Lodz, people stock up on food. In my area in the evening in shops, for example, in Lidl, all the shelves are empty with cereals, rice, canned goods. And how are you? Or is it just my panic? ” — quoted by a resident of Lodz portal Natemat.

Russia:
Russian brought coronavirus to Azerbaijan

A Russian who arrived in Azerbaijan from Iran was diagnosed with a coronavirus.

Previously missed: Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

Germany:
Germany faced the threat of stagnation. GDP growth in Europe’s main economy in January-March 2020 may slow down to 0.1 percent, Reuters writes with reference to the German Institute for Economic Research DIW.
The second problem for the German economy is the disruption of the supply chain of components from China.

Earlier, Oxford Economics analysts estimated the loss of the world economy from coronavirus at $ 1.1 trillion in 2020. Damage will reach this level if the epidemic becomes a full-fledged pandemic.

Masks are startup goods. In Russia and Germany, as well as in other countries, banned the export of masks.
All protective masks, in warehouses and in production, will be distributed in France to medical personnel and patients with COVID-19, said French President Emmanuel Macron.

Christian Zolmeke: In Germany, everything is fine (legally. — Ed.) Adjusted. There is a federal law on protection against infectious diseases, and it determines when it is necessary to quarantine people. Even against their will. This happens when there is a general threat. https://p.dw.com/p/3Yc98

Italy:
In Italy, allegedly because of the coronavirus, a ship with rescued refugees was quarantined (03/02/2020)

Italy has closed all schools and universities.

Other:
One of the employees of the European Defense Agency in Brussels became infected with the coronavirus.

Intel has canceled its participation in Mobile World Congress 2020.

The cruise ship Aida Aura was forced to stand anchored in Norway for two days.

In Chernivtsi, speculators bought all the medical masks in pharmacies and trade them in the markets.
One ordinary medical mask is 10 UAH per piece. For that kind of money, you could buy an fpp2 respirator.

Louvre Museum reopened for tourists after closing due to coronavirus

Facebook gave WHO free advertising space for coronavirus alerts

The Geneva Motor Show was held virtually without visitors.


Adolescents and children (under 19 years old) are less likely to get coronavirus due to the characteristics of their immune system.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is ready to support the least prosperous countries in the fight against Covid and urgently send them part of the money from the fund of $ 50 billion. This was stated by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Alcohol should not be used as a preventative measure for coronavirus or colds, as this will cause an additional burden on the heart and «may end badly.»

Japanese company Takeda Pharmaceutical announced the development of a drug for coronavirus infected at risk.
A company from Tokyo on Wednesday, March 4, said it was working on a drug based on blood plasma.
The effectiveness of such drugs has already been proven in the treatment of acute respiratory viral diseases, the statement says.
In particular, similar studies were previously announced by the American companies Gilead Sciences and Pfizer.

“There is no evidence that the virus can be transmitted through mosquitoes. Coronavirus COVID-19 is distributed mainly when an infected person coughs or sneezes. There have also been cases of spread of infection through saliva, nasal discharge, ”the WHO statement for AsiaOne said.

World Bank Allocates $ 12 Billion To Fight Coronavirus Together with the IMF, this is 60 billion.

WHO calls for a 40% increase in the production of personal protective equipment to meet demand.
About 89 million masks, 76 million gloves for inspection and 1.6 million pairs of goggles are required every month.
“Doctors, nurses and other front-line workers are at risk of infection from patients due to a lack of personal protective equipment,” a WHO press release said, kommersant reports.

WHO no longer forbids wearing masks because it is unlikely to stop the demand for protective equipment in this way. Previously, the organization stated that medical masks should only be worn by patients with coronavirus and doctors.

If you have symptoms of SARS:
Call a doctor at home or go to the clinic.
Be sure to inform the doctor about the trip «to a country with an unfavorable epidemiological situation or about contacts with people who arrived from there» or about the likely contact with the infected person or symptoms.
If you can specify information about possible persons in contact with you.
A doctor in the clinic will examine you. If the symptoms of a cold are confirmed, he will take a coronavirus test — this is a smear from the nose and throat, which is taken with a cotton swab.
In addition, he can send you immediately to hospitalization in an infectious diseases hospital. After hospitalization, a test will also be taken at the hospital.
From the polyclinic or hospital, biomaterial will be sent to the nearest medical center of Rospotrebnadzor. Such centers and materials for analysis are in every Russian region.
The analysis result will be ready in 2-4 hours.
If the analysis does not show coronavirus infection, the patient will be transferred from the infectious diseases hospital to the general one.

If you came from a country with an unfavorable epidemiological situation or there were possible contacts with people who arrived from there «or about probable contact with the infected person or symptoms.
It is recommended to self-fade for a while.
Record all possible contacts.
Try to be farther than 2 meters from people and use a gauze bandage.
Wash your hands.
It is recommended to go by personal transport or taxi, any transport with fewer people.
Find contact line phones.

If you do not have a fever or cough, but you are afraid that you might be infected, then it will be much more difficult to pass the test, even if you are willing to pay for it.

It makes sense to take a test for coronavirus if you returned from a country „that is burning“, and not just contacted with foreigners. Returnees from China and other countries are tested 3, 7, and 10 days after their return, she added.

In England, the system is not much better built:
»We have private insurance, I want to check it. But I can’t come anywhere personally and say: oh, check me for coronavirus. Answering machines are everywhere: if you have a cough and a temperature and you returned from the area where there are confirmed cases, don’t come to us by any means. By number 111 [NHS hotline] they told me not to leave our house, we’ll call you back soon. For about 40 minutes they kept me on the phone yesterday, gasped and groaned, but they are in no hurry to save.

Beijing, March 4 / Xinhua / — The State Committee on Health Affairs of the PRC on Wednesday published the latest version of the plan for the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19.
A plan that includes the results of autopsy of patients who died from COVID-19, as well as monitoring the pathological process using a puncture biopsy method.
The results showed different degrees of pulmonary mutations caused by the disease, while the size of the spleen in patients was significantly reduced, and myocardial cells also suffered degeneration and necrosis.

The above plan has already been updated six times.


A boomerang happened in China: The fall of world financial markets is just around the corner.
Chinese authorities have confirmed 13 cases of importation of coronavirus infection from Italy and Iran. In China itself, a decrease in the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection has been recorded.
Among them are eight Chinese people who worked in the same restaurant in the Italian region of Lombardy. They returned to China from Italy last week.

In this way, China will not be able to tear the situation. As I predicted such a «boomerang» will hit China's ambitions to restore the economy.
Repeated outbreaks in China are possible.

A sudden drop in the US base rate is an important signal. Now the central banks and governments of the world will go into crisis mode, said Andrei Gurkov.
This was the last time 12 years ago, at the time of the growing financial crisis of 2008. Thirdly, because the Fed did not change the rate by the standard 0.25 percentage points, but immediately preferred the “double dose”.

From the point of view of the European Union, the signal is alarming that the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed, has fewer opportunities to stimulate markets:
in the US, the base rate before the decline was in the corridor of 1.50-1.75%, then in the eurozone it is already 0.0%. Another question is whether the American policy of cheap money will be effective, because it has a number of negative side effects.

Other than this: Apple's main suppliers in China are unable to recruit workers due to coronavirus
https://habr.com/en/news/t/491060/

It’s good that then the constructed hospital was only built and not dismantled.

For the airline market this year may be the worst since the crisis of 2009 due to coronavirus
The situation in the tourism industry due to the coronavirus became the worst since the beginning of the 2000s — Bloomberg. Let me remind you there are a couple of countries where there is no coronavirus yet, some publications also suggest going there

The state of California declared a state of emergency in connection with the state's first recorded death from COVID-19 (BBC News).

On Friday, WHO warned that the chances of stopping the spread of a new coronavirus epidemic are running out.

Hannover Messe Preview postponed due to coronavirus

Two Russian citizens in the UAE were probably infected by two participants in the UAE Tour bike race, who had previously been diagnosed accordingly.

Turkmenistan has begun disinfecting common areas to prevent the spread of coronavirus. This was reported by Radio Azatlyk (the Turkmen service of Radio Liberty).

For this, the premises of schools, kindergartens and hospitals are fumigated with a camel thorn.

Coronavirus has increased the number of customers around the world interested in Russian homes for zombie apocalypse CyberHouse.

Captain Diamond Princess (who discovered the coronavirus) was the last ship to leave

The international company Group-IB, which specializes in preventing cyberattacks, over the past day has revealed new fake messages about the spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19 in Russia. This was reported by RIA Novosti with reference to the press service of the company.
Social networks spread fakes about the coronavirus epidemic in Moscow

On social networks, they publish a lot of photos of empty shelves, which in fact are filled again the very next day.
The rush demand is gaining its internal dynamics — when people see empty shelves, people go in search of appropriate goods, even if they already have them.
This happens in many countries and not only in Germany and Poland.

The Federal Office for the Protection of the Population in the event of disasters recommends stocking up for no more than 10 days and purchasing only those foods that the family consumes at regular times.

The spread of coronavirus, according to some scientists, may slow down with the advent of spring and an increase in air temperature.
Note: However, as happened in Iran, hopes are not always justified. Spring may not be enough for this.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is ready to use the military in the fight against COVID-19.

spread of COVID-19 coronavirus infection.

IMF and World Bank announce cancellation of annual meeting scheduled for April 13-19 in Washington
Designers of the Chinese architectural company Penda China presented a suit that has a built-in sterilization system and covers a person with his head, like an egg.
https://fakty.ua/user_uploads_new/images/articles/2020/03/04/336186/0_penda_china_84574026_2487961201445765_8107452876882015185_n.jpg

A student from Singapore was brutally beaten in London because of a coronavirus.

For the first time in decades, Queen Elizabeth II (photo) put on gloves at a ceremony because of the coronavirus.

in Kharkov, a Chinese man staged a protest poster against discrimination against students from China

in Italy want to ban handshakes, hugs and kisses

An extremist from France climbed onto a skyscraper in Barcelona to draw attention to the coronavirus.

04/03
With the news again bust. This is only part of the news.

The WHO named the updated data on mortality from the new coronavirus. It is 3.4%. Moreover, mortality from seasonal flu usually does not exceed 1%.

The spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 can be restrained. We are located in uncharted territory — we have never seen a respiratory pathogen that can be transmitted in society, but at the same time can be restrained by the right measures. If it were a flu epidemic, we would already see widespread spread around the world. And efforts to slow down or deter it would not be feasible, «he said.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-tedros-idUSKBN20P2FQ?taid=5e5d557a88f2b900019275b9&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_mtium = wt

Gebreyesus added that containment of COVID-19 is possible — and it should remain a top priority for all countries.

Lichteinstein, Chile, Argentina have already announced. Ukraine according to the score 87 (76) country: 90 (80) countries are already rushing along my / other statistics.

Ukraine:
In Chernivtsi, in connection with the first case, transport and school premises are disinfected; no quarantine has yet been announced
»A clear instruction is to strengthen measures to disinfect the premises. Tomorrow they will conduct a lesson in schools where they will tell you what coronavirus is and how to act. Parents will be warned that children with minimal signs of SARS should not be allowed to go to school and kindergarten. I also urge residents not to come to work in case of symptoms of SARS. Ill — stay at home, «said the mayor of Chernivtsi, Alexei Kaspruk.

The infected man behaved exemplary: he was self-insulated, reported signs of SARS to doctors and told them that he was in Italy and also drove in a car, which is also a good factor. His wife was self-isolated, it would be better if she was isolated.

The man and his wife traveled around Italy, returned to Chernivtsi by car, first flew to the Romanian airport. When crossing the border, the temperature of the spouses was normal. Having received a memo on self-isolation, the man organized a voluntary quarantine for himself and his wife.
The head of the Ministry of Health, Zoryana Skaletskaya, assures that the medical system “worked clearly” and that the situation is under control. The wife of a Ukrainian, who was found to have COVID-19, is hospitalized for observation
Near the patient’s house, Ukrainians coronavirus people protest: they demand to isolate his wife

Tomorrow in the schools of Chernivtsi they will conduct a lesson on COVID-19 and how to act. The authorities of the Chernivtsi region reported that the information that another 35 people had been isolated along with infected COVID-19 is untrue.

In kindergartens, mass events in honor of March 8 will be held without parents.
In the Chernivtsi region, in connection with the detected case of the COViD-19 coronavirus, a round-the-clock hot line was created where all residents can go: 066 084 93 13. There are more than 2000 boxes and about 12000 beds in infectious diseases hospitals in the country, which may be enough depending on the spread of coronavirus. In the worst case, enough for a few months…

In Chernivtsi, class teachers in schools were required to prevent children with a fever and flu symptoms from taking classes.

Ex-sanitary doctor of Ukraine Svyatoslav Protas suggested that the case in Ukraine is not the only one. Just others are not yet officially recorded. “Given the passenger flow from Italy, I think we already have a dozen cases,” Protas said.

Memes: the only recommendation in the instructions for what to do if you become infected is to be baptized.
In Chernivtsi, the dollar has gone up, reports the telegram channel KhCh.
In Kharkov, for 14 million hryvnias they will purchase the necessary funds and preparations. According to Sorokolat, for these hospitals it is necessary to purchase biosecurity suits, gloves with long cuffs, shoe covers, respirators, medical caps

WHO may provide Ukraine with additional test kits

Russia:
In the Russian Cherepovets installed a snowman to protect against coronavirus. „Coronavirus will not pass.“
Some joke that now in stores people will panicky start buying buckwheat and matches.
In Russia, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, proposed the death penalty by shooting those who disseminate information about the coronavirus epidemic among Russians.

As the Apostrophe reported, a video was posted earlier on the network with a Russian who is supposed to have brought the coronavirus to Moscow. He tried to explain why he insulted Chinese tourists with obscene language because of fear of catching the disease.

Arriving in Moscow with symptoms of acute respiratory viral infections will be sent to a hospital in Kommunarka, which the authorities specially allocated for coronavirus-infected people, converters and also for people with suspicion.

Rospotrebnadzor instructed to check patients with pneumonia for coronavirus. Doctors will give priority to assisting febrile patients with respiratory symptoms, as well as people over 60 years of age.

A Russian citizen with confirmed coronavirus who returned from Italy is in satisfactory condition, the Ministry of Health said. All the persons with whom he contacted are now under medical supervision, there are no new cases of infection.

Russian automakers may face problems with the spread of coronavirus. This was reported on February 5 by Kommersant. Problems in the automotive industry are related to the fact that part of the components for production comes from China.

As the head of the Moscow Ambulance Station, Nikolai Plavunov, said, normative documents regulating the actions of ambulance teams when identifying persons with signs of acute respiratory viral infection in the presence of an epidemiological history were published and worked out with employees. This group includes citizens who came from countries with adverse conditions, or those who had contact with the sick.

“Appropriate measures have been taken. I hope that they will be effective, ”said Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A hotline was created in Russia: — 8-800-707-88-41 (Rostrud). You can also ask questions to a specialist of the labor inspection hotline in your region or on the Online Inspection.rf portal. However, it is still quite difficult to pass a survey in Russia. For more details: https: //www.bbc.com/russian/features-51661421

Belarus:
— We were immediately surprised and upset by the reaction of our population to the events that are being taken. Disease implies the presence of clinical symptoms. Now the hospitalized patient is not worried. No treatment is required because it has no clinical symptoms. This is not the first viral infection that comes into the country, ”said Minister of Health Vladimir Karanik, writes kp.by.

— Today bought 70 thousand masks. We already have a delivery schedule — we expect 1 million 160 thousand masks on Monday, the car is in loading. When they say that there are no masks in the pharmacy, you need to understand that there are state pharmacies, there are commercial ones.

Coronavirus was brought by a guy from Iran — a student of BNTU. All of his circle of friends, including teachers, are quarantined for examination in a hospital for invalids of the Great Patriotic War near Minsk.

People joke about the Crown store in Minsk. Note Each side has its own crown: From beer to the store.
https://42.tut.by/674451
https://kyky.org/news/koronavirus-v-belarusi-sotsseti-shutyat-i-zlyatsya-no-teper-vsem-po-nastoyaschemu-strashno

In Vitebsk, 2 classes of secondary school No.? 44 and the college team were temporarily transferred to distance learning, spokeswoman for the Ministry of Health Julia Borodun told reporters.

Now 4 cases of infection have been confirmed in Belarus. 2 more tests, patients belonging to the contact of the 1st level, previously demonstrate positive results, an accurate laboratory diagnosis is carried out in accordance with the examination protocols recommended by WHO.

Those people who will have symptoms of the disease will be able to be examined in the sixth hospital in Minsk, and regional infection centers will be involved in the regions. Similar measures will be taken if the number of potential carriers of the virus increases. Now in Belarus, under the supervision of physicians, there are 271 people. And it’s important — this is not about the infected, but about those who themselves took the initiative to undergo a physical examination.

A hotline for coronavirus infection has been opened for Minsk residents. You can contact specialists daily on weekdays. Phone: +375 (17) 334-34-68.

Republican Center for Hygiene of Epidemiology and Public Health +375 29 156? 85? 65, calls are received on weekdays from 8.30 to 13.00 and from 13.30 to 18.00.

A hotline has been opened for Minsk residents on issues of coronavirus infection in the Minsk Infectious Disease Hospital at the number +375 17 334? 34? 68 from 8.30 to 15.00.

Hot lines in Vitebsk — 8 0212 67-36-44, Polotsk — 8 0214 74-39-44, Novopolotsk — 8 0214 57-36-44, Orsha — 8 0216 51-34-41 and 51? 34? 48.

Nobody was dying of coronavirus in Belarus — the Ministry of Health denied the information that appeared on Russian television

In Spain, the first death recorded — in Valencia.



The chief sanitary officer of Ukraine Viktor Lyashko said that the decline in the incidence of coronavirus is expected from April to October, when the epidemiological season begins. This is possible if the same circulation of coronavirus that is observed today continues.

In the UK, I predict the consequences no worse than that of the Spanish woman (Note: Why frighten the population?)
»1. 80% of the population is ill, that is, more than 50 million.
2. Of these, 1% will die, that is, 500 thousand (if you can rely on Chinese mortality statistics).
3. The government will make efforts to postpone the outbreak for a couple of months, in May-June, when the NHS is not so overloaded with seasonal winter diseases.
4. The only practical advice is to wash your hands with soap more often, singing «happy birthday» (each wash is two happyfords long)
5. Live a normal life, but preferably less often leaving your home and without visiting crowded events, public transport, trips abroad and handshakes. Boris Johnson, however, specified that he continues to shake hands, even in hospitals — but then he washes them for a long time.

Note I do not think that this is possible. Considering the probability, according to my calculations, no more than 100,000-300,000 will get sick. With large miscalculations by the authorities: From 300,000 to several million in the world.


02/03

1 03
Those who disseminate statistics make only 1 chart around the world. It is not necessary to need a schedule for each country marked ^.
So far, you yourself can see the distribution dynamics for each country in the table thanks to the numbers.

Differences in distribution patterns in each country will affect the situation.

Still, I do not believe in the probability of a case exceeding 99,000-500,000 cases in the world. Only in the case of complete amateurism and failure is more possible.
However, as always, we are now observing only the first manifestations.

Given the lines of recovery (1-3 weeks) and the incubation period, you can declare: The situation will last even at least 1 month (no one will get sick tomorrow) to 1 year.
There is still a danger of new cases of the spread of the virus if organizations reopen. Thus, tsunzwang happened. We cannot go on exemptions.
This is a stalemate for the economy.

My prediction of the possible versatility of the virus was confirmed by the news of an infected dog.
Now a couple of forecasts. Given the low level of quarantine in Europe, it is easy to predict from 10,000 to 300,000 thousand likely cases.
The previous forecast for China to from 8000 to 100000 (26.01) was almost correct.

Cases of negligence and oversights will significantly affect the situation. Perhaps the discovery of new wide distribution corridors.

The influence of coronavirus on geopolitics: Coronavirus has already affected Iran. Most likely, because of it, Iran does not help Russia in Idlib.
I believe that in the future, coronavirus will affect the course of hostilities in Syria. There will be no war between Russia and Turkey, the coronavirus will affect this.
It will also affect the fighting in Libya.

The most terrifying situation may be the impact on refugees. Turkey has a huge number of refugees. Moreover, Turkey practically lets them into Europe.
If an outbreak of refugee populations does take place then the result can be horrific. Probably the seepage of patients into Europe.
The likelihood of such a situation is low.

The likelihood of a total economic crisis is incredibly high. The severity of the crisis can hurt all sectors and sectors of the population.
As well as development and scientific progress. One or two bad news is probably enough.

Another unaccounted factor for the economy may be people's fear of buying Chinese goods, even if China emerges from the crisis.
It is panic that is likely to almost directly affect the spread of coronavirus.
A crisis may not occur only if China emerges from the crisis within a month and there are no new cases returning to China from other countries as a boomerang.

The likely spread of the virus in low-health countries will show real mortality.

In the near future there will be very few countries without at least 1 case.

The closure of plants and factories is likely to escalate into a mass and mandatory case. Mass layoffs or unpaid leave are possible.

I already recommend raising money just in case and not spending on unnecessary things.

For each country, the situation can strike in its own way: Russia: Oil and IT prices, Ukraine: Returned home workers and IT (Many work for foreigners).

On the other hand, there are good advantages: In the event of a crisis, you should not wait for the capture of AI by the world. The AI ​​industry is likely to collapse.

Perhaps more cases of manifestations of social fear and inequality associated with coronavirus will increase.

Note I am a realist and the fact that I am not writing material in the spirit of «everything is lost.» Unfortunately, the forecast is made by the analysis of facts.

I hope that part of what is described here will not be possible.
In summary: Despite the relatively small danger to humanity compared to other viruses,
coronavirus can paralyze the global economy and also significantly affect many people.

Do not panic. In the end, the coronavirus should never fail to achieve the mortality characteristic of many other viruses.
It’s just worth a little to moderate your appetites and survive this period from 1 month to 1 year. Then again, everything should be fine.


Knocks 504 error (Timeout). I had to cut the news
. The rest is here
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